| Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model DM Smith, S Cusack, AW Colman, CK Folland, GR Harris, JM Murphy science 317 (5839), 796-799, 2007 | 919 | 2007 |
| Decadal prediction: can it be skillful? GA Meehl, L Goddard, J Murphy, RJ Stouffer, G Boer, G Danabasoglu, ... Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90 (10), 1467-1486, 2009 | 847 | 2009 |
| Skillful long‐range prediction of European and North American winters AA Scaife, A Arribas, E Blockley, A Brookshaw, RT Clark, N Dunstone, ... Geophysical Research Letters 41 (7), 2514-2519, 2014 | 811 | 2014 |
| High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region S Laxon, N Peacock, D Smith Nature 425 (6961), 947-950, 2003 | 773 | 2003 |
| Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches GA Meehl, L Goddard, G Boer, R Burgman, G Branstator, C Cassou, ... Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95 (2), 243-267, 2014 | 592 | 2014 |
| Robust warming of the global upper ocean JM Lyman, SA Good, VV Gouretski, M Ishii, GC Johnson, MD Palmer, ... Nature 465 (7296), 334-337, 2010 | 435 | 2010 |
| A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning RL Wilby, J Troni, Y Biot, L Tedd, BC Hewitson, DM Smith, RT Sutton International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological …, 2009 | 408 | 2009 |
| A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments L Goddard, A Kumar, A Solomon, D Smith, G Boer, P Gonzalez, V Kharin, ... Climate Dynamics 40, 245-272, 2013 | 375 | 2013 |
| Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead N Dunstone, D Smith, A Scaife, L Hermanson, R Eade, N Robinson, ... Nature Geoscience 9 (11), 809-814, 2016 | 374 | 2016 |
| Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models JA Screen, C Deser, DM Smith, X Zhang, R Blackport, PJ Kushner, ... Nature Geoscience 11 (3), 155-163, 2018 | 362 | 2018 |
| Do seasonal‐to‐decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world? R Eade, D Smith, A Scaife, E Wallace, N Dunstone, L Hermanson, ... Geophysical research letters 41 (15), 5620-5628, 2014 | 351 | 2014 |
| Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency DM Smith, R Eade, NJ Dunstone, D Fereday, JM Murphy, H Pohlmann, ... Nature geoscience 3 (12), 846-849, 2010 | 311 | 2010 |
| Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid-1990s J Robson, R Sutton, K Lohmann, D Smith, MD Palmer Journal of Climate 25 (12), 4116-4134, 2012 | 304 | 2012 |
| A signal-to-noise paradox in climate science AA Scaife, D Smith npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1 (1), 28, 2018 | 282 | 2018 |
| North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply DM Smith, AA Scaife, R Eade, P Athanasiadis, A Bellucci, I Bethke, ... Nature 583 (7818), 796-800, 2020 | 265 | 2020 |
| The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification DM Smith, JA Screen, C Deser, J Cohen, JC Fyfe, J García-Serrano, ... Geoscientific Model Development 12 (3), 1139-1164, 2019 | 254 | 2019 |
| Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction WJ Merryfield, J Baehr, L Batté, EJ Becker, AH Butler, CAS Coelho, ... Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101 (6), E869-E896, 2020 | 217 | 2020 |
| Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere AA Scaife, AY Karpechko, MP Baldwin, A Brookshaw, AH Butler, R Eade, ... Atmospheric Science Letters 17 (1), 51-56, 2016 | 214 | 2016 |
| Tropical rainfall, Rossby waves and regional winter climate predictions AA Scaife, RE Comer, NJ Dunstone, JR Knight, DM Smith, C MacLachlan, ... Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 143 (702), 1-11, 2017 | 202 | 2017 |
| High risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate V Thompson, NJ Dunstone, AA Scaife, DM Smith, JM Slingo, S Brown, ... Nature communications 8 (1), 1-6, 2017 | 199 | 2017 |