A machine learning-based price state prediction model for agricultural commodities using external factors

P Oktoviany, R Knobloch, R Korn - Decisions in Economics and Finance, 2021 - Springer
In recent times of noticeable climate change the consideration of external factors, such as
weather and economic key figures, becomes even more crucial for a proper valuation of …

Futures pricing in electricity markets based on stable CARMA spot models

FE Benth, C Klüppelberg, G Müller, L Vos - Energy Economics, 2014 - Elsevier
We present a new model for the electricity spot price dynamics, which is able to capture
seasonality, low-frequency dynamics and extreme spikes in the market. Instead of the usual …

The implied market price of weather risk

WK Härdle, BL Cabrera - Applied Mathematical Finance, 2012 - Taylor & Francis
Weather derivatives (WD) are end-products of a process known as securitization that
transforms non-tradable risk factors (weather) into tradable financial assets. For pricing and …

Joint price and volumetric risk in wind power trading: A copula approach

A Pircalabu, T Hvolby, J Jung, E Høg - Energy Economics, 2017 - Elsevier
This paper examines the dependence between wind power production and electricity prices
and discusses its implications for the pricing and the risk distributions associated with …

Modelling electricity futures by ambit fields

OE Barndorff-Nielsen, FE Benth… - Advances in Applied …, 2014 - cambridge.org
In this paper we propose a new modelling framework for electricity futures markets based on
so-called ambit fields. The new model can capture many of the stylised facts observed in …

A regime-switching copula approach to modeling day-ahead prices in coupled electricity markets

A Pircalabu, FE Benth - Energy Economics, 2017 - Elsevier
The recent price coupling of many European electricity markets has triggered a fundamental
change in the interaction of day-ahead prices, challenging additionally the modeling of the …

Residual demand modeling and application to electricity pricing

A Wagner - The Energy Journal, 2014 - journals.sagepub.com
A model for residual demand is proposed, which extends structural electricity price models
to account for renewable infeed in the market. Infeed from wind and solar is modeled …

Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information

R Füss, S Mahringer, M Prokopczuk - Journal of Economic dynamics and …, 2015 - Elsevier
In order to increase overall transparency on key operational information, power transmission
system operators publish an increasing amount of fundamental data, including forecasts of …

A Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model with leverage in Hilbert space for commodity forward markets

FE Benth, C Sgarra - Finance and Stochastics, 2024 - Springer
We propose an extension of the model introduced by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard,
based on stochastic processes of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type taking values in Hilbert spaces …

A consistent two-factor model for pricing temperature derivatives

A Groll, B López-Cabrera, T Meyer-Brandis - Energy Economics, 2016 - Elsevier
In the past decade, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange began to trade weather derivatives to
hedge weather risk. The pricing of weather derivatives is challenging since the underlying is …