A machine learning-based price state prediction model for agricultural commodities using external factors
P Oktoviany, R Knobloch, R Korn - Decisions in Economics and Finance, 2021 - Springer
In recent times of noticeable climate change the consideration of external factors, such as
weather and economic key figures, becomes even more crucial for a proper valuation of …
weather and economic key figures, becomes even more crucial for a proper valuation of …
Futures pricing in electricity markets based on stable CARMA spot models
We present a new model for the electricity spot price dynamics, which is able to capture
seasonality, low-frequency dynamics and extreme spikes in the market. Instead of the usual …
seasonality, low-frequency dynamics and extreme spikes in the market. Instead of the usual …
The implied market price of weather risk
Weather derivatives (WD) are end-products of a process known as securitization that
transforms non-tradable risk factors (weather) into tradable financial assets. For pricing and …
transforms non-tradable risk factors (weather) into tradable financial assets. For pricing and …
Joint price and volumetric risk in wind power trading: A copula approach
This paper examines the dependence between wind power production and electricity prices
and discusses its implications for the pricing and the risk distributions associated with …
and discusses its implications for the pricing and the risk distributions associated with …
Modelling electricity futures by ambit fields
OE Barndorff-Nielsen, FE Benth… - Advances in Applied …, 2014 - cambridge.org
In this paper we propose a new modelling framework for electricity futures markets based on
so-called ambit fields. The new model can capture many of the stylised facts observed in …
so-called ambit fields. The new model can capture many of the stylised facts observed in …
A regime-switching copula approach to modeling day-ahead prices in coupled electricity markets
A Pircalabu, FE Benth - Energy Economics, 2017 - Elsevier
The recent price coupling of many European electricity markets has triggered a fundamental
change in the interaction of day-ahead prices, challenging additionally the modeling of the …
change in the interaction of day-ahead prices, challenging additionally the modeling of the …
Residual demand modeling and application to electricity pricing
A Wagner - The Energy Journal, 2014 - journals.sagepub.com
A model for residual demand is proposed, which extends structural electricity price models
to account for renewable infeed in the market. Infeed from wind and solar is modeled …
to account for renewable infeed in the market. Infeed from wind and solar is modeled …
Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information
In order to increase overall transparency on key operational information, power transmission
system operators publish an increasing amount of fundamental data, including forecasts of …
system operators publish an increasing amount of fundamental data, including forecasts of …
A Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model with leverage in Hilbert space for commodity forward markets
FE Benth, C Sgarra - Finance and Stochastics, 2024 - Springer
We propose an extension of the model introduced by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard,
based on stochastic processes of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type taking values in Hilbert spaces …
based on stochastic processes of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type taking values in Hilbert spaces …
A consistent two-factor model for pricing temperature derivatives
In the past decade, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange began to trade weather derivatives to
hedge weather risk. The pricing of weather derivatives is challenging since the underlying is …
hedge weather risk. The pricing of weather derivatives is challenging since the underlying is …