[HTML][HTML] Communicating uncertainty using words and numbers

MK Dhami, DR Mandel - Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 2022 - cell.com
Life in an increasingly information-rich but highly uncertain world calls for an effective means
of communicating uncertainty to a range of audiences. Senders prefer to convey uncertainty …

Communicating probability information in weather forecasts: Findings and recommendations from a living systematic review of the research literature

J Ripberger, A Bell, A Fox, A Forney… - Weather, Climate …, 2022 - journals.ametsoc.org
Probabilistic forecast information is rapidly spreading in the weather enterprise. Many
scientists agree that this is a positive development, but incorporating probability information …

Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists' predictions

LC Howe, B MacInnis, JA Krosnick… - Nature Climate …, 2019 - nature.com
Predictions about the effects of climate change cannot be made with complete certainty, so
acknowledging uncertainty may increase trust in scientists and public acceptance of their …

Verbal probabilities: Very likely to be somewhat more confusing than numbers

BC Wintle, H Fraser, BC Wills, AE Nicholson, F Fidler - PLoS One, 2019 - journals.plos.org
People interpret verbal expressions of probabilities (eg 'very likely') in different ways, yet
words are commonly preferred to numbers when communicating uncertainty. Simply …

Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports: a survey of experts from different scientific disciplines

A Kause, W Bruine de Bruin, J Persson, H Thorén… - Climatic Change, 2022 - Springer
Scientific assessments, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), inform policymakers and the public about the state of scientific evidence and related …

Dimensions of uncertainty communication: What is conveyed by verbal terms and numeric ranges

KH Teigen - Current Psychology, 2023 - Springer
The paper reviews two strands of research on communication of uncertainty that usually
have been investigated separately:(1) Probabilities attached to specific outcomes, and (2) …

Capturing richer information: On establishing the validity of an interval-valued survey response mode

Z Ellerby, C Wagner, SB Broomell - Behavior Research Methods, 2021 - Springer
Obtaining quantitative survey responses that are both accurate and informative is crucial to a
wide range of fields. Traditional and ubiquitous response formats such as Likert and visual …

Discriminant validity of interval response formats: Investigating the dimensional structure of interval widths

M Kloft, DW Heck - Educational and Psychological …, 2024 - journals.sagepub.com
In psychological research, respondents are usually asked to answer questions with a single
response value. A useful alternative are interval response formats like the dual-range slider …

Understanding 'unlikely (20% likelihood)'or '20% likelihood (unlikely)'outcomes: The robustness of the extremity effect

SC Jenkins, AJL Harris, RM Lark - Journal of Behavioral …, 2018 - Wiley Online Library
Calls to communicate uncertainty using mixed, verbal‐numerical formats ('unlikely [0–33%]')
have stemmed from research comparing mixed with solely verbal communications …

Communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings: a qualitative systematic review

A Kause, WB De Bruin, S Domingos… - Environmental …, 2021 - iopscience.iop.org
We undertake a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature to arrive at recommendations
for sha** communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings. Climate …