Post-processing in solar forecasting: Ten overarching thinking tools

D Yang, D van der Meer - Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2021 - Elsevier
Forecasts are always wrong, otherwise, they are merely deterministic calculations. Besides
leveraging advanced forecasting methods, post-processing has become a standard practice …

Operational solar forecasting for grid integration: Standards, challenges, and outlook

D Yang, W Li, GM Yagli, D Srinivasan - Solar Energy, 2021 - Elsevier
The interactions between solar forecasting strategies and grid codes have a profound
impact on grid integration. In order to develop grid-integration standards, such as the …

[HTML][HTML] Probabilistic solar forecasting: Benchmarks, post-processing, verification

T Gneiting, S Lerch, B Schulz - Solar Energy, 2023 - Elsevier
Probabilistic solar forecasts may take the form of predictive probability distributions,
ensembles, quantiles, or interval forecasts. State-of-the-art approaches build on input from …

An archived dataset from the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System for probabilistic solar power forecasting

W Wang, D Yang, T Hong, J Kleissl - Solar Energy, 2022 - Elsevier
Ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) is the backbone of the state-of-the-art solar
forecasting for horizons ranging between a few hours and a few days. Dynamical ensemble …

Verifying operational intra-day solar forecasts from ECMWF and NOAA

D Yang, W Wang, JM Bright, C Voyant, G Notton… - Solar Energy, 2022 - Elsevier
Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting at intra-day horizons of up to 12-h ahead is
vital to grid integration of solar photovoltaics, but has been fundamentally difficult for all …

[HTML][HTML] Post-processing numerical weather prediction ensembles for probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting

B Schulz, M El Ayari, S Lerch, S Baran - Solar Energy, 2021 - Elsevier
In order to enable the transition towards renewable energy sources, probabilistic energy
forecasting is of critical importance for incorporating volatile power sources such as solar …

Ensemble solar forecasting and post-processing using dropout neural network and information from neighboring satellite pixels

GM Yagli, D Yang, D Srinivasan - Renewable and Sustainable Energy …, 2022 - Elsevier
Ensemble weather forecasts are often found to be under-dispersed and biased. Post-
processing using spatio-temporal information is, therefore, required if one wishes to improve …

Parametric probabilistic forecasting of solar power with fat-tailed distributions and deep neural networks

F Lin, Y Zhang, K Wang, J Wang… - IEEE Transactions on …, 2022 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
The need of solar power uncertainty quantification in the power system has inspired
probabilistic solar power forecasting. This paper proposes a novel multi-step parametric …

Non-crossing quantile regression neural network as a calibration tool for ensemble weather forecasts

M Song, D Yang, S Lerch, X **a, GM Yagli… - … in Atmospheric Sciences, 2024 - Springer
Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP), the resulting
forecasts are still, more often than not, under-dispersed. As such, forecast calibration tools …

Forecasting high penetration of solar and wind power in the smart grid environment using robust ensemble learning approach for large-dimensional data

T Ahmad, S Manzoor, D Zhang - Sustainable Cities and Society, 2021 - Elsevier
Forecasting enables the cost-effective integration of renewable energy sources such as
solar and wind. Forecasting daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual data for different locations …