We study the causal effects and policy implications of global supply chain disruptions. We
construct a new index of supply chain disruptions from the mandatory automatic …

Global supply chains have come under unprecedented stress as a result of US-China trade
tensions, the Covid-19 pandemic, and geopolitical shocks. We document shifts in the pattern …

We estimate a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation
expectations that allows us to analyze and quantify the sources of recent US inflation. We …

We develop a simple quantitative New Keynesian model aimed at accounting for the recent
sudden and persistent rise in inflation, with emphasis on the role of oil shocks and …

We interpret recent inflation experience through the lens of a New Keynesian model with
price and wage rigidities and nonlabor inputs in inelastic supply. The model provides a …

" So we have now experienced an extraordinary series of shocks if you think about it. The
pandemic, the response, the reopening, inflation, followed by the war in Ukraine, followed by …

Abstract Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent
increase in the natural rate of unemployment, ut∗, in the aftermath of the pandemic and …

We document how supply-chain pressures, household inflation expectations, and firm
pricing power interacted to induce the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the …

We employ a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to analyze the factors driving
pandemic-era inflation. The model incorporates both sector-specific and aggregate shocks …

This paper compares the COVID-19 recession in the euro area (EA) and the US using an
estimated multi-region New Keynesian macroeconomic model. To capture quarterly …