El Niño and La Niña events in the tropical Pacific have significant and disrupting impacts on
the global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) …

In the tropical stratosphere, deep layers of eastward and westward winds encircle the globe
and descend regularly from the upper stratosphere to the tropical tropopause. With a …

In this paper we describe SEAS5, ECMWF's fifth generation seasonal forecast system, which
became operational in November 2017. Compared to its predecessor, System 4, SEAS5 is a …

The stratosphere has been identified as an important source of predictability for a range of
processes on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Knowledge about S2S …

Abstract The Global Coupled 3 (GC3) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model is
presented. Among other applications, GC3 is the basis of the United Kingdom's submission …

The interactions and teleconnections between the tropical and midlatitude regions on
intraseasonal time scales are an important modulator of tropical and extratropical circulation …

After exhibiting an upward trend since 1979, Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) declined
dramatically during austral spring 2016, reaching a record low by December 2016. Here we …

Skilful predictions of near-term climate extremes are key to a resilient society. However,
standard methods of analysing seasonal forecasts are not optimised to identify the rarer and …

Strong rivers of westerly winds, known as jet streams, are driven primarily by temperature
differences between low and high latitudes as well as the rotation of the Earth. The jet …

An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is forced with patterns of observed sea
surface temperature (SST) change and those output from atmosphere–ocean GCM …