For over ten years, the Treasury has issued index-linked debt. This paper describes the
methodology for fitting a smoothed yield curve to these securities that is used at the Federal …

We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term, experimental test between two
crowdsourcing methods: prediction markets and prediction polls. More than 2,400 …

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are a prominent tool for forecasting
at central banks, and the competitive forecasting performance of these models relative to …

Macroeconomic news announcements are elaborate and multidimensional. We consider a
framework in which jumps in asset prices around announcements reflect both the response …

Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as" information markets,"" idea futures" or" event
futures", are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future …

We discuss the use of event studies in macroeconomics and finance, arguing that many
important macro‐finance questions can only be answered using event studies with high …

We establish an empirical link between the ex-ante uncertainty about macroeconomic
fundamentals and the ex-post resolution of this uncertainty in financial markets. We measure …

The dynamics of US Treasury prices may be interrupted by jumps, and cojumps—where
these occur simultaneously across the term structure. This paper finds significant evidence …

We review the classic clinical versus statistical prediction debate as well as related modern
work on humans versus. algorithms. Despite the successes of statistical prediction over …

I study the second‐moment response to macroeconomic news announcements in financial
markets. Responses can be decomposed into contributions from continuous volatility and …