A predictive timeline of wildlife population collapse

F Cerini, DZ Childs, CF Clements - Nature Ecology & Evolution, 2023 - nature.com
Contemporary rates of biodiversity decline emphasize the need for reliable ecological
forecasting, but current methods vary in their ability to predict the declines of real-world …

[HTML][HTML] Network resilience

X Liu, D Li, M Ma, BK Szymanski, HE Stanley, J Gao - Physics Reports, 2022 - Elsevier
Many systems on our planet shift abruptly and irreversibly from the desired state to an
undesired state when forced across a “tip** point”. Some examples are mass extinctions …

A quantitative review of abundance‐based species distribution models

C Waldock, RD Stuart‐Smith, C Albouy… - …, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
The contributions of species to ecosystem functions or services depend not only on their
presence but also on their local abundance. Progress in predictive spatial modelling has …

Indicators of transitions in biological systems

CF Clements, A Ozgul - Ecology letters, 2018 - Wiley Online Library
In the face of global biodiversity declines, predicting the fate of biological systems is a key
goal in ecology. One popular approach is the search for early warning signals (EWS s) …

Early warning signals have limited applicability to empirical lake data

DA O'Brien, S Deb, G Gal, SJ Thackeray… - Nature …, 2023 - nature.com
Research aimed at identifying indicators of persistent abrupt shifts in ecological
communities, aka regime shifts, has led to the development of a suite of early warning …

Long‐term empirical evidence, early warning signals and multiple drivers of regime shifts in a lake ecosystem

H Su, R Wang, Y Feng, Y Li, Y Li, J Chen… - Journal of …, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
Catastrophic regime shifts in various ecosystems are increasing with the intensification of
anthropogenic pressures. Understanding and predicting critical transitions are thus a key …

Reduced resilience of terrestrial ecosystems locally is not reflected on a global scale

Y Feng, H Su, Z Tang, S Wang, X Zhao… - … Earth & Environment, 2021 - nature.com
Global climate change likely alters the structure and function of vegetation and the stability of
terrestrial ecosystems. It is therefore important to assess the factors controlling ecosystem …

Early warning signals of recovery in complex systems

CF Clements, MA McCarthy, JL Blanchard - Nature Communications, 2019 - nature.com
Early warning signals (EWSs) offer the hope that patterns observed in data can predict the
future states of ecological systems. While a large body of research identifies such signals …

Spy in the sky: a method to identify pregnant small cetaceans

BJ Cheney, J Dale, PM Thompson… - Remote Sensing in …, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
Data on sex ratios, age classes, reproductive success and health status are key metrics to
manage populations, yet can be difficult to collect in wild cetacean populations. Long‐term …

Early warning signal reliability varies with COVID-19 waves

DA O'brien, CF Clements - Biology Letters, 2021 - royalsocietypublishing.org
Early warning signals (EWSs) aim to predict changes in complex systems from
phenomenological signals in time series data. These signals have recently been shown to …