We develop a method for the evaluation of extreme event statistics associated with nonlinear
dynamical systems from a small number of samples. From an initial dataset of design points …

A conditional Gaussian framework for understanding and predicting complex multiscale
nonlinear stochastic systems is developed. Despite the conditional Gaussianity, such …

The fundamental dynamical mechanisms of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
phenomenon have been extensively studied since Bjerknes envisioned ocean‐atmosphere …

Modern instrumental records reveal that El Niño events differ in their spatial patterns and
temporal evolutions. Attempts have been made to categorize them roughly into two main …

Due to the profound impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global climate and
weather, extensive research has been devoted to its prediction. However, prediction …

Under the influence of recent global warming, modulation of frequencies and amplitude of El
Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its impacts on global climate have become great …

This study presents evidence of interannual to interdecadal variabilities residing in the
subsurface nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) along the equatorial Pacific thermocline …

The basic dynamics of the spatiotemporal diversity for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
has been the subject of extensive research and, while several hypotheses have been …

In this study, we investigate how a single leading linear El Niño–Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) mode, as studied in Part I, leads to the irregular coexistence of central Pacific (CP) …

Abstract El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is often considered as a source of long‐term
predictability for extreme events via its teleconnection patterns. However, given that its …