Many students of statistics and econometrics express frustration with the way a problem
known as “bad control” is treated in the traditional literature. The issue arises when the …

A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding
causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence" Correlation …

Successful investment strategies are specific implementations of general theories. An
investment strategy that lacks a theoretical justification is likely to be false. Hence, an asset …

We examine the key factors driving change in energy use globally over the past four
decades. We test for both strong decoupling where economic growth has less effect on …

Though there is a very large literature examining whether energy use Granger causes
economic output or vice versa, it is fairly inconclusive. Almost all existing studies use …

In modern test theory, response variables are a function of a common latent variable that
represents the measured attribute, and error variables that are unique to the response …

In this paper we introduce a calibration procedure for validating of agent based models.
Starting from the well-known financial model of (Brock and Hommes, 1998), we show how …

Virtually all journal articles in the factor investing literature make associational claims, in
denial of the causal content of factor models. Authors do not identify the causal graph …

Haavelmo was the first to recognize the capacity of economic models to guide policies. This
paper describes some of the barriers that Haavelmo's ideas have had (and still have) to …

One of the most exciting recent developments in financial research is the availability of new
administrative, private sector and micro-level datasets that did not exist a few years ago. The …