Modelling and management of mortality risk: a review

AJG Cairns, D Blake, K Dowd - Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2008 - Taylor & Francis
In the first part of the paper, we consider the wide range of extrapolative stochastic mortality
models that have been proposed over the last 15–20 years. A number of models that we …

The new life market

D Blake, A Cairns, G Coughlan, K Dowd… - Journal of Risk and …, 2013 - Wiley Online Library
The huge economic significance of longevity risk for corporations, governments, and
individuals has begun to be recognized and quantified. By virtue of its size and prevalence …

A two‐factor model for stochastic mortality with parameter uncertainty: theory and calibration

AJG Cairns, D Blake, K Dowd - Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2006 - Wiley Online Library
In this article, we consider the evolution of the post‐age‐60 mortality curve in the United
Kingdom and its impact on the pricing of the risk associated with aggregate mortality …

A quantitative comparison of stochastic mortality models using data from England and Wales and the United States

AJG Cairns, D Blake, K Dowd… - North American …, 2009 - Taylor & Francis
We compare quantitatively eight stochastic models explaining improvements in mortality
rates in England and Wales and in the United States. On the basis of the Bayes Information …

On stochastic mortality modeling

R Plat - Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2009 - Elsevier
In the last decennium a vast literature on stochastic mortality models has been developed.
All well-known models have nice features but also disadvantages. In this paper a stochastic …

[BOEK][B] Modelling longevity dynamics for pensions and annuity business

E Pitacco - 2009 - books.google.com
Mortality improvements, uncertainty in future mortality trends and the relevant impact on life
annuities and pension plans constitute important topics in the field of actuarial mathematics …

Mortality density forecasts: An analysis of six stochastic mortality models

AJG Cairns, D Blake, K Dowd, GD Coughlan… - Insurance: Mathematics …, 2011 - Elsevier
This paper develops a framework for develo** forecasts of future mortality rates. We
discuss the suitability of six stochastic mortality models for forecasting future mortality and …

Living with mortality: Longevity bonds and other mortality-linked securities

D Blake, AJG Cairns, K Dowd - British Actuarial Journal, 2006 - cambridge.org
This paper addresses the problem of longevity risk—the risk of uncertain aggregate mortality—
and discusses the ways in which life assurers, annuity providers and pension plans can …

Bayesian stochastic mortality modelling for two populations

AJG Cairns, D Blake, K Dowd, GD Coughlan… - ASTIN Bulletin: The …, 2011 - cambridge.org
This paper introduces a new framework for modelling the joint development over time of
mortality rates in a pair of related populations with the primary aim of producing consistent …

Addressing the life expectancy gap in pension policy

JM Bravo, M Ayuso, R Holzmann, E Palmer - Insurance: Mathematics and …, 2021 - Elsevier
Understanding the systematic relationship between period and cohort life expectancy and
how the relationship evolves over time are critical issues in formulating the design of …