Predicting climate tip** as a noisy bifurcation: a review

JMT Thompson, J Sieber - International Journal of Bifurcation and …, 2011‏ - World Scientific
There is currently much interest in examining climatic tip** points, to see if it is feasible to
predict them in advance. Using techniques from bifurcation theory, recent work looks for a …

A review of multimodel superensemble forecasting for weather, seasonal climate, and hurricanes

TN Krishnamurti, V Kumar, A Simon… - Reviews of …, 2016‏ - Wiley Online Library
This review provides a summary of work in the area of ensemble forecasts for weather,
climate, oceans, and hurricanes. This includes a combination of multiple forecast model …

Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

R Buizza, M Milleer, TN Palmer - Quarterly Journal of the Royal …, 1999‏ - Wiley Online Library
A stochastic representation of random error associated with parametrized physical
processes ('stochastic physics') is described, and its impact in the European Centre for …

A Monte Carlo implementation of the nonlinear filtering problem to produce ensemble assimilations and forecasts

JL Anderson, SL Anderson - Monthly weather review, 1999‏ - journals.ametsoc.org
Abstract Knowledge of the probability distribution of initial conditions is central to almost all
practical studies of predictability and to improvements in stochastic prediction of the …

Areas beneath the relative operating characteristics (ROC) and relative operating levels (ROL) curves: Statistical significance and interpretation

SJ Mason, NE Graham - … of the Royal Meteorological Society: A …, 2002‏ - Wiley Online Library
The areas beneath the relative (or receiver) operating characteristics (ROC) and relative
operating levels (ROL) curves can be used as summary measures of forecast quality, but …

A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems

R Buizza, PL Houtekamer, G Pellerin… - Monthly Weather …, 2005‏ - journals.ametsoc.org
The present paper summarizes the methodologies used at the European Centre for Medium-
Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), and the …

Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

DS Richardson - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological …, 2000‏ - Wiley Online Library
The economic value of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts
(ECMWF) operational ensemble prediction system (EPS) is assessed relative to the value of …

Neural network load forecasting with weather ensemble predictions

JW Taylor, R Buizza - IEEE Transactions on Power systems, 2002‏ - ieeexplore.ieee.org
In recent years, a large amount of literature has evolved on the use of artificial neural
networks (ANNs) for electric load forecasting. ANNs are particularly appealing because of …

Predicting uncertainty in forecasts of weather and climate

TN Palmer - Reports on progress in Physics, 2000‏ - iopscience.iop.org
The predictability of weather and climate forecasts is determined by the projection of
uncertainties in both initial conditions and model formulation onto flow-dependent …

Wind power density forecasting using ensemble predictions and time series models

JW Taylor, PE McSharry… - IEEE Transactions on …, 2009‏ - ieeexplore.ieee.org
Wind power is an increasingly used form of renewable energy. The uncertainty in wind
generation is very large due to the inherent variability in wind speed, and this needs to be …