Infectious disease modelling can serve as a powerful tool for situational awareness and
decision support for policy makers. However, COVID-19 modelling efforts faced many …

The COVID-19 pandemic brought mathematical modelling into the spotlight, as scientists
rushed to use data to understand transmission patterns and disease severity, and to …

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of
disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well …

The COVID-19 pandemic has made it clear that epidemic models play an important role in
how governments and the public respond to infectious disease crises. Early in the …

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and
conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and …

Abstract Between December 2020 and April 2023, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub
(SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to …

Abstract The Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) initiative provides projections of potential
epidemic scenarios in the United States (US) by using a multi-model approach. Our …

Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term
projections and how they might depend on potential interventions and critical uncertainties …

This paper describes an integrated, data-driven operational pipeline based on national
agent-based models to support federal and state-level pandemic planning and response …

Beginning in December 2020, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub has provided
quantitative scenario-based projections for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, aggregated …