Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly
consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to …

Abstract El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability
increased after 1960, influenced by more frequent strong El Niño and La Niña events …

2 Chapter 2 assesses observed large-scale changes in climate system drivers, key climate
indicators and 3 principal modes of variability. Chapter 3 considers model performance and …

Abstract The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was
unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, the radiative power of the fires, and the …

Despite the recent prevalence of severe drought, California faces a broadly
underappreciated risk of severe floods. Here, we investigate the physical characteristics of …

The AR5 concluded that human influence on the climate system is clear, evident from
increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing …

Working Group I (WGI) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assesses
the current evidence on the physical science of climate change, evaluating knowledge …

Abstract Initialized Earth System predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction
model in a state as consistent as possible to observations and running it forward in time for …

Mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia between 2016 and 2024
was driven by high sea surface temperatures (SST). The likelihood of temperature-induced …

Abstract The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affects climate and rainfall across the world, and
most severely in nations surrounding the Indian Ocean,,–. The frequency and intensity of …