This article brings three decades of broadly consistent survey data on survey respondents'
feelings about the parties as evidence of affective polarization. It also presents evidence …

Before every election, politicians, pundits, political scientists, commentators, and ordinary
citizens try to predict who will win. In recent years, the spread of public opinion polls and the …

There are two approaches to predicting election outcomes:(1) a historical approach, which
uses past election results alongside macroeconomic and political variables to forecast …

People do not know much about politics. This is one of the most robust findings in political
science and is backed by decades of research. Most of this research has focused on …

We examine the outcomes of the provincial elections having been held in Canada since the
Great Recession and compare them with outcomes from past decades. Given the severity of …

Election forecasting is a cottage industry among pollsters, the media, political scientists, and
political anoraks. Here, we plow a fresh field in providing a systematic exploration of election …

The purpose of this article is to explore electoral forecasting and public opinion tracking in
Latin America. We review different approaches used to estimate the true value of public …

In exploratory research, we investigate whether a recently developed framework of leader
character, grounded in the business administration literature, has any utility for …

Problem Do conservative econometric models that comply with the Golden Rule of
Forecasting provide more accurate forecasts? Methods To test the effects of forecast …

Are campaigns epiphenomena? The dominant answer in the US literature seems to be Yes.
Outcomes are driven by 'fundamental'considerations in place before the campaign begins …