Probabilistic forecasting

T Gneiting, M Katzfuss - Annual Review of Statistics and Its …, 2014 - annualreviews.org
A probabilistic forecast takes the form of a predictive probability distribution over future
quantities or events of interest. Probabilistic forecasting aims to maximize the sharpness of …

When null hypothesis significance testing is unsuitable for research: a reassessment

D Szucs, JPA Ioannidis - Frontiers in human neuroscience, 2017 - frontiersin.org
Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has several shortcomings that are likely
contributing factors behind the widely debated replication crisis of (cognitive) neuroscience …

[LIVRO][B] Rationality: What it is, why it seems scarce, why it matters

S Pinker - 2022 - books.google.com
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER “In our uncertain age, which can so often feel so dark and
disturbing, Steven Pinker has distinguished himself as a voice of positivity.”–New York …

The United States COVID-19 forecast hub dataset

EY Cramer, Y Huang, Y Wang, EL Ray, M Cornell… - Scientific data, 2022 - nature.com
Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have
produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage …

" I need a better description": An Investigation Into User Expectations For Differential Privacy

R Cummings, G Kaptchuk, EM Redmiles - Proceedings of the 2021 ACM …, 2021 - dl.acm.org
Despite recent widespread deployment of differential privacy, relatively little is known about
what users think of differential privacy. In this work, we seek to explore users' privacy …

A meta-analytic review of two modes of learning and the description-experience gap.

DU Wulff, M Mergenthaler-Canseco… - Psychological …, 2018 - psycnet.apa.org
People can learn about the probabilistic consequences of their actions in two ways: One is
by consulting descriptions of an action's consequences and probabilities (eg, reading up on …

[LIVRO][B] Risk savvy: How to make good decisions

G Gigerenzer - 2015 - books.google.com
A new eye-opener on how we can make better decisions—by the author of Gut Feelings In
this age of big data we often trust that expert analysis—whether it's about next year's stock …

Measuring risk literacy: The Berlin numeracy test

ET Cokely, M Galesic, E Schulz, S Ghazal… - … and Decision making, 2012 - cambridge.org
We introduce the Berlin Numeracy Test, a new psychometrically sound instrument that
quickly assesses statistical numeracy and risk literacy. We present 21 studies (n= 5336) …

Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user

D Maraun, F Wetterhall, AM Ireson… - Reviews of …, 2010 - Wiley Online Library
Precipitation downscaling improves the coarse resolution and poor representation of
precipitation in global climate models and helps end users to assess the likely hydrological …

[LIVRO][B] Tourism and climate change: Impacts, adaptation and mitigation

D Scott, CM Hall, G Stefan - 2012 - taylorfrancis.com
Climate change is the single most important global environmental and development issue
facing the world today and has emerged as a major topic in tourism studies. Climate change …