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Probabilistic forecasting
A probabilistic forecast takes the form of a predictive probability distribution over future
quantities or events of interest. Probabilistic forecasting aims to maximize the sharpness of …
quantities or events of interest. Probabilistic forecasting aims to maximize the sharpness of …
When null hypothesis significance testing is unsuitable for research: a reassessment
Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has several shortcomings that are likely
contributing factors behind the widely debated replication crisis of (cognitive) neuroscience …
contributing factors behind the widely debated replication crisis of (cognitive) neuroscience …
[LIVRO][B] Rationality: What it is, why it seems scarce, why it matters
S Pinker - 2022 - books.google.com
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER “In our uncertain age, which can so often feel so dark and
disturbing, Steven Pinker has distinguished himself as a voice of positivity.”–New York …
disturbing, Steven Pinker has distinguished himself as a voice of positivity.”–New York …
The United States COVID-19 forecast hub dataset
Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have
produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage …
produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage …
" I need a better description": An Investigation Into User Expectations For Differential Privacy
Despite recent widespread deployment of differential privacy, relatively little is known about
what users think of differential privacy. In this work, we seek to explore users' privacy …
what users think of differential privacy. In this work, we seek to explore users' privacy …
A meta-analytic review of two modes of learning and the description-experience gap.
People can learn about the probabilistic consequences of their actions in two ways: One is
by consulting descriptions of an action's consequences and probabilities (eg, reading up on …
by consulting descriptions of an action's consequences and probabilities (eg, reading up on …
[LIVRO][B] Risk savvy: How to make good decisions
G Gigerenzer - 2015 - books.google.com
A new eye-opener on how we can make better decisions—by the author of Gut Feelings In
this age of big data we often trust that expert analysis—whether it's about next year's stock …
this age of big data we often trust that expert analysis—whether it's about next year's stock …
Measuring risk literacy: The Berlin numeracy test
We introduce the Berlin Numeracy Test, a new psychometrically sound instrument that
quickly assesses statistical numeracy and risk literacy. We present 21 studies (n= 5336) …
quickly assesses statistical numeracy and risk literacy. We present 21 studies (n= 5336) …
Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user
Precipitation downscaling improves the coarse resolution and poor representation of
precipitation in global climate models and helps end users to assess the likely hydrological …
precipitation in global climate models and helps end users to assess the likely hydrological …
[LIVRO][B] Tourism and climate change: Impacts, adaptation and mitigation
Climate change is the single most important global environmental and development issue
facing the world today and has emerged as a major topic in tourism studies. Climate change …
facing the world today and has emerged as a major topic in tourism studies. Climate change …