Five years ago, an article in the first issue of WIREs Climate Change reviewed the factors
that shape perceptions of climate change. Climate change is an abstract statistical …

Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or
quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is …

Previous research has primarily focused on evaluating flood risks influenced by single
factors, often neglecting the combined impacts of climate change and urbanization on …

Uncertainty is a pervasive and important problem that has attracted increasing attention in
health care, given the growing emphasis on evidence-based medicine, shared decision …

We investigate the relation between judgments of probability and preferences between bets.
A series of experiments provides support for the competence hypothesis that people prefer …

Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity, provides a comprehensive and accessible
textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical …

This two-part study begins with a rhetorical analysis of the genre of earnings press releases.
Then, a quantitative analysis uses capital markets data to assess the investor impact of tone …

We present a theory of decision by sampling (DbS) in which, in contrast with traditional
models, there are no underlying psychoeconomic scales. Instead, we assume that an …

Discussing the uncertainty associated with a clinical decision is thought to be a critical
element of shared decision-making. Yet, empirical evidence suggests that clinicians rarely …

As natural language becomes the default interface for human-AI interaction, there is a need
for LMs to appropriately communicate uncertainties in downstream applications. In this work …