Less than 2 C warming by 2100 unlikely

AE Raftery, A Zimmer, DMW Frierson, R Startz… - Nature climate …, 2017 - nature.com
Abstract The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for …

Integrated human-earth system modeling—state of the science and future directions

K Calvin, B Bond-Lamberty - Environmental Research Letters, 2018 - iopscience.iop.org
Research on humans and the Earth system has historically occurred separately, with
different teams and models devoted to each. Increasingly, however, these communities and …

[HTML][HTML] The ambiguities of uncertainty: A review of uncertainty frameworks relevant to the assessment of environmental change

LD Bevan - Futures, 2022 - Elsevier
As awareness of deep uncertainties in many disciplines has grown over the last half-century,
researchers have developed many frameworks, typologies, and taxonomies to understand …

[HTML][HTML] Forced and internal components of winter air temperature trends over North America during the past 50 years: Mechanisms and implications

C Deser, L Terray, AS Phillips - Journal of Climate, 2016 - journals.ametsoc.org
Forced and Internal Components of Winter Air Temperature Trends over North America during
the past 50 Years: Mechanisms and Implications in: Journal of Climate Volume 29 Issue 6 …

Climate change risks to US infrastructure: impacts on roads, bridges, coastal development, and urban drainage

JE Neumann, J Price, P Chinowsky, L Wright, L Ludwig… - Climatic Change, 2015 - Springer
Abstract Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely
increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the United States. Using four models that …

Large model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves

Z Zheng, L Zhao, KW Oleson - Nature Communications, 2021 - nature.com
Urban heat waves (UHWs) are strongly associated with socioeconomic impacts. Here, we
use an urban climate emulator combined with large ensemble global climate simulations to …

US air quality and health benefits from avoided climate change under greenhouse gas mitigation

F Garcia-Menendez, RK Saari, E Monier… - … Science & Technology, 2015 - ACS Publications
We evaluate the impact of climate change on US air quality and health in 2050 and 2100
using a global modeling framework and integrated economic, climate, and air pollution …

Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the US using large climate model ensembles for RCP8. 5 and RCP4. 5

KW Oleson, GB Anderson, B Jones, SA McGinnis… - Climatic change, 2018 - Springer
Previous studies examining future changes in heat/cold waves using climate model
ensembles have been limited to grid cell-average quantities. Here, we make use of an urban …

Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities

GB Anderson, KW Oleson, B Jones, RD Peng - Climatic change, 2018 - Springer
Some rare heatwaves have extreme daily mortality impacts; moderate heatwaves have
lower daily impacts but occur much more frequently at present and so account for large …

Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison

J McFarland, Y Zhou, L Clarke, P Sullivan, J Colman… - Climatic Change, 2015 - Springer
The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies
highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet fewer …