There is a global financial cycle in capital flows, asset prices and in credit growth. This cycle
co moves with the VIX, a measure of uncertainty and risk aversion of the markets. Asset …

At the onset of the Great Recession, as house prices sank and joblessness soared, many
commentators concluded that the economic convictions behind the disaster would now be …

Abstract Launched in Summer 2012, the European Central Bank's (ECB) Outright Monetary
Transactions (OMT) program indirectly recapitalized European banks through its positive …

A new eye-opener on how we can make better decisions—by the author of Gut Feelings In
this age of big data we often trust that expert analysis—whether it's about next year's stock …

In The Shifts and the Shocks, Martin Wolf-one of the world's most influential economic
commentators and author of Why Globalization Works-presents his controversial and highly …

The preference for simple explanations, known as the parsimony principle, has long guided
the development of scientific theories, hypotheses, and models. Yet recent years have seen …

Since the 2008 global financial crisis, and after decades of relative neglect, the importance
of the financial system and its episodic crises as drivers of macroeconomic outcomes has …

Using a sample of 1992 banks from 39 OECD countries during the 1999–2013 period, we
examine whether the imposition of higher capital ratios is effective in reducing risk and …

Abstract The Great Recession seems to be a natural experiment for economic analysis, in
that it has shown the inadequacy of the predominant theoretical framework-the New …

Nearly a century ago, Frank Knight famously distinguished between risk and uncertainty with
respect to the nature of decisions made in a business enterprise. He associated generating …