Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent
outside Antarctica over the past~ 2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal …

Abstract Initialized Earth System predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction
model in a state as consistent as possible to observations and running it forward in time for …

Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both
decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effects and are …

Abstract Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the
1906–1999 average, the worst 15‐year drought on record. At least one‐sixth to one‐half …

In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected
to increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions nevertheless …

The large socioeconomic costs of droughts make them a crucial target for impact
assessments of climate change scenarios. Using multiple drought metrics and a set of …

Droughts are a recurrent and natural part of the Australian hydroclimate, with evidence of
drought dating back thousands of years. However, our ability to monitor, attribute, forecast …

Hydroclimate extremes critically affect human and natural systems, but there remain many
unanswered questions about their causes and how to interpret their dynamics in the past …

Hundreds of coral paleoclimate records have been developed over the past several
decades, significantly extending the instrumental record and improving our understanding of …

The rationale for using multi-model ensembles in climate change projections and impacts
research is often based on the expectation that different models constitute independent …