Causal machine learning for predicting treatment outcomes

S Feuerriegel, D Frauen, V Melnychuk, J Schweisthal… - Nature Medicine, 2024 - nature.com
Causal machine learning (ML) offers flexible, data-driven methods for predicting treatment
outcomes including efficacy and toxicity, thereby supporting the assessment and safety of …

Using machine learning to individualize treatment effect estimation: Challenges and opportunities

A Curth, RW Peck, E McKinney… - Clinical …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
The use of data from randomized clinical trials to justify treatment decisions for real‐world
patients is the current state of the art. It relies on the assumption that average treatment …

Empirical analysis of model selection for heterogeneous causal effect estimation

D Mahajan, I Mitliagkas, B Neal, V Syrgkanis - arxiv preprint arxiv …, 2022 - arxiv.org
We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for conditional
average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. Unlike machine learning, there is no perfect …

DiffPO: A causal diffusion model for learning distributions of potential outcomes

Y Ma, V Melnychuk, J Schweisthal… - Advances in Neural …, 2025 - proceedings.neurips.cc
Predicting potential outcomes of interventions from observational data is crucial for decision-
making in medicine, but the task is challenging due to the fundamental problem of causal …

Inverse-variance weighting for estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects

A Fisher - Forty-first International Conference on Machine …, 2024 - openreview.net
Many methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) can be
expressed as weighted pseudo-outcome regressions (PORs). Previous comparisons of POR …

Reducing balancing error for causal inference via optimal transport

Y Yan, H Zhou, Z Yang, W Chen, R Cai… - Forty-first International …, 2024 - openreview.net
Most studies on causal inference tackle the issue of confounding bias by reducing the
distribution shift between the control and treated groups. However, it remains an open …

Orthogonal representation learning for estimating causal quantities

V Melnychuk, D Frauen, J Schweisthal… - arxiv preprint arxiv …, 2025 - arxiv.org
Representation learning is widely used for estimating causal quantities (eg, the conditional
average treatment effect) from observational data. While existing representation learning …

Dynamic inter-treatment information sharing for individualized treatment effects estimation

VK Chauhan, J Zhou, G Ghosheh… - International …, 2024 - proceedings.mlr.press
Estimation of individualized treatment effects (ITE) from observational studies is a
fundamental problem in causal inference and holds significant importance across domains …

Quantifying Aleatoric Uncertainty of the Treatment Effect: A Novel Orthogonal Learner

V Melnychuk, S Feuerriegel… - Advances in Neural …, 2025 - proceedings.neurips.cc
Estimating causal quantities from observational data is crucial for understanding the safety
and effectiveness of medical treatments. However, to make reliable inferences, medical …

Unveiling the Potential of Robustness in Selecting Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimators

Y Huang, CH Leung, S Wang, Y Li… - Advances in Neural …, 2025 - proceedings.neurips.cc
The growing demand for personalized decision-making has led to a surge of interest in
estimating the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE). Various types of CATE …