Errors in probabilistic reasoning and judgment biases
DJ Benjamin - Handbook of Behavioral Economics: Applications and …, 2019 - Elsevier
Errors in probabilistic reasoning have been the focus of much psychology research and are
among the original topics of modern behavioral economics. This chapter reviews theory and …
among the original topics of modern behavioral economics. This chapter reviews theory and …
Not so above average after all: When people believe they are worse than average and its implications for theories of bias in social comparison
DA Moore - Organizational Behavior and Human Decision …, 2007 - Elsevier
Recent research calls into question the generally accepted conclusion that people believe
themselves to be better than average. This paper reviews the new theories that have been …
themselves to be better than average. This paper reviews the new theories that have been …
Beyond nudges: Tools of a choice architecture
The way a choice is presented influences what a decision-maker chooses. This paper
outlines the tools available to choice architects, that is anyone who present people with …
outlines the tools available to choice architects, that is anyone who present people with …
Assessing consumers' satisfaction and expectations through online opinions: Expectation and disconfirmation approach
The opportunity to capture the opinions of the general public about multiple topics such as
social events, marketing campaigns, and product preferences has raised more and more …
social events, marketing campaigns, and product preferences has raised more and more …
Overconfidence and underconfidence: When and why people underestimate (and overestimate) the competition
It is commonly held that people believe themselves to be better than others, especially for
outcomes under their control. However, such overconfidence is not universal. This paper …
outcomes under their control. However, such overconfidence is not universal. This paper …
Error and bias in comparative judgment: on being both better and worse than we think we are.
People believe that they are better than others on easy tasks and worse than others on
difficult tasks. In previous attempts to explain these better-than-average and worse-than …
difficult tasks. In previous attempts to explain these better-than-average and worse-than …
Finding useful questions: on Bayesian diagnosticity, probability, impact, and information gain.
JD Nelson - Psychological review, 2005 - psycnet.apa.org
Abstract [Correction Notice: An erratum for this article was reported in Vol 114 (3) of
Psychological Review (see record 2007-10421-013). In Table 13, the data should indicate …
Psychological Review (see record 2007-10421-013). In Table 13, the data should indicate …
Ubiquitous log odds: a common representation of probability and frequency distortion in perception, action, and cognition
In decision from experience, the source of probability information affects how probability is
distorted in the decision task. Understanding how and why probability is distorted is a key …
distorted in the decision task. Understanding how and why probability is distorted is a key …
Memories of yesterday's emotions: Does the valence of experience affect the memory-experience gap?
Intense pain is often exaggerated in retrospective evaluations, indicating a possible
divergence between experience and memory. However, little is known regarding how …
divergence between experience and memory. However, little is known regarding how …
Can journalistic “false balance” distort public perception of consensus in expert opinion?
DJ Koehler - Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 2016 - psycnet.apa.org
Media critics have expressed concern that journalistic “false balance” can distort the public's
perceptions of what ought to be noncontroversial subjects (eg, climate change). I report …
perceptions of what ought to be noncontroversial subjects (eg, climate change). I report …