The great majority of medical diagnoses are made using automatic, fast, and frugal cognitive
processes; they are correct most of the time. This analytic review concerns the exceptions …

Individuals' perceptions of their own level of cognitive ability are expressed through self-
estimates. They play an important role in a person's self-concept because they facilitate an …

We examine the role of overconfidence in news judgment using two large nationally
representative survey samples. First, we show that three in four Americans overestimate …

We assess the impact of investor sentiment on future stock returns in 50 global stock
markets. Using the consumer confidence index (CCI) as the sentiment proxy, we document a …

In this chapter, I provide argument and evidence that the scope of people's ignorance is
often invisible to them. This meta-ignorance (or ignorance of ignorance) arises because lack …

" More information is always better, and full information is best. More computation is always
better, and optimization is best." More-is-better ideals such as these have long shaped our …

The authors present a reconciliation of 3 distinct ways in which the research literature has
defined overconfidence:(a) overestimation of one's actual performance,(b) overplacement of …

In explaining the prevalence of the overconfident belief that one is better than others, prior
work has focused on the motive to maintain high self-esteem, abetted by biases in attention …

Abstract The Dunning-Kruger hypothesis states that the degree to which people can
estimate their ability accurately depends, in part, upon possessing the ability in question …

Research from numerous corners of psychological inquiry suggests that self-assessments of
skill and character are often flawed in substantive and systematic ways. We review empirical …