[PDF][PDF] Forecasting Elections in Latin America: an Overview
MC Ratto, MS Lewis-Beck, É Bélanger - 2022 - gredos.usal.es
Before every election, politicians, pundits, political scientists, commentators, and ordinary
citizens try to predict who will win. In recent years, the spread of public opinion polls and the …
citizens try to predict who will win. In recent years, the spread of public opinion polls and the …
A two-stage model to forecast elections in new democracies
The purpose of this article is to propose a method to minimize the difference between
electoral predictions and electoral results. It builds on findings that stem from established …
electoral predictions and electoral results. It builds on findings that stem from established …
LASSOing the Governor's Mansion: A Machine-Learning Approach to Forecasting Gubernatorial Elections
Despite governors' crucial roles in sha** important policies, including abortion, education,
and infrastructure, forecasters have paid little attention to gubernatorial elections. We posit …
and infrastructure, forecasters have paid little attention to gubernatorial elections. We posit …
Choosing the lesser evil: Forecasting presidential elections in Peru
The Peruvian political landscape is dominated by the weakness of party organizations, the
continuous rotation of political personalities, and, in turn, high electoral volatility and …
continuous rotation of political personalities, and, in turn, high electoral volatility and …
Forecasting two-horse races in new democracies: Accuracy, precision and error
The purpose of this article is to explore electoral forecasting in two-horse races in new
democracies. Specifically, it applies a Bayesian dynamic linear model (coined the Two …
democracies. Specifically, it applies a Bayesian dynamic linear model (coined the Two …
Pronosticando carreras de dos caballos en nuevas democracias: exactitud, precisión y error
K Bunker - 2022 - gredos.usal.es
El propósito de este artículo es explorar la predicción electoral en carreras de dos caballos
en nuevas democracias. Específicamente, aplica un modelo lineal dinámico bayesiano …
en nuevas democracias. Específicamente, aplica un modelo lineal dinámico bayesiano …
¿ Escogiendo el mal menor? Pronosticando las elecciones presidenciales en Perú
M Arce, S Vera - 2022 - gredos.usal.es
El panorama político peruano está dominado por la debilidad de las organizaciones
partidistas, rotación continua de las personalidades políticas y, a su vez, una alta volatilidad …
partidistas, rotación continua de las personalidades políticas y, a su vez, una alta volatilidad …
Elecciones argentinas: pronóstico de resultados
MC Ratto, MS Lewis-Beck - 2022 - gredos.usal.es
Antes de las elecciones nacionales en democracias establecidas en todo el mundo
aparecen regularmente distintos pronósticos electorales basados en encuestas de opinión …
aparecen regularmente distintos pronósticos electorales basados en encuestas de opinión …
Argentinian Elections: Forecasting Outcomes
Election forecasts, based on public opinion polls or statistical structural models, regularly
appear before national elections in established democracies around the world. However, in …
appear before national elections in established democracies around the world. However, in …
[HTML][HTML] Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda
A Bayesian hierarchical model is proposed to forecast outcomes of binary referenda based
on opinion poll data acquired over a period of time. It is demonstrated how the model …
on opinion poll data acquired over a period of time. It is demonstrated how the model …