Countries increasingly rely on independent fiscal councils to constrain policymakers'
discretion and curb the bias towards excessive deficits and pro-cyclical policies. Since fiscal …

This paper surveys the empirical research on fiscal policy analysis based on real‐time data.
This literature can be broadly divided into four groups that focus on:(1) the statistical …

A leading economist discusses the potential of happiness research (the quantification of well-
being) to answer important questions that standard economics methods are unable to …

Eurozone members are supposedly constrained by the fiscal caps of the Stability and
Growth Pact. Yet ever since the birth of the euro, members have postponed painful …

Historically, many countries have suffered a pattern of procyclical fiscal policy: spending too
much in booms and then forced to cut back in recessions. This problem has especially …

The paper studies forecasts of real growth rates and budget balances made by official
government agencies among 33 countries. In general, the forecasts are found:(i) to have a …

Using real-time data from Europe's Stability and Convergence Programs, we explore how
fiscal plans and their implementation in the EU are determined. We find that (1) implemented …

The rules-based fiscal framework of the EMU relies heavily on the development of medium-
term fiscal plans by the EU governments. In this paper, I present an empirical analysis of the …

We analyse the budget balance forecasts prepared by 15 European countries in their
Excessive Deficit Procedure reportings, studying the statistical properties of forecast errors …

While fiscal forecasting and monitoring has its roots in the accountability of governments for
the use of public funds in democracies, the Stability and Growth Pact has significantly …