[HTML][HTML] Inference of epidemic dynamics in the COVID-19 era and beyond

A Cori, A Kucharski - Epidemics, 2024 - Elsevier
The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the key role that epidemiology and modelling play
in analysing infectious threats and supporting decision making in real-time. Motivated by the …

[HTML][HTML] Update on COVID-19 and Effectiveness of a Vaccination Campaign in a Global Context

IA Charitos, A Ballini, R Lovero, F Castellaneta… - International Journal of …, 2022 - mdpi.com
The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 remains a significant issue for global
health, the economy, and society. When SARS-CoV-2 began to spread, the most recent …

Mathematical modeling as a tool for policy decision making: Applications to the COVID-19 pandemic

J Panovska-Griffiths, CC Kerr, W Waites, RM Stuart - Handbook of Statistics, 2021 - Elsevier
Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlighted the importance of
mathematical modeling in advising scientific bodies and informing public policy making …

Estimating the basic reproduction number at the beginning of an outbreak

S Boonpatcharanon, JM Heffernan, H Jankowski - Plos one, 2022 - journals.plos.org
We compare several popular methods of estimating the basic reproduction number, R 0,
focusing on the early stages of an epidemic, and assuming weekly reports of new infecteds …

Heterogeneity in the onwards transmission risk between local and imported cases affects practical estimates of the time-dependent reproduction number

R Creswell, D Augustin, I Bouros… - … of the Royal …, 2022 - royalsocietypublishing.org
During infectious disease outbreaks, inference of summary statistics characterizing
transmission is essential for planning interventions. An important metric is the time …

[HTML][HTML] A simulation-based approach for estimating the time-dependent reproduction number from temporally aggregated disease incidence time series data

I Ogi-Gittins, WS Hart, J Song, RK Nash, J Polonsky… - Epidemics, 2024 - Elsevier
Tracking pathogen transmissibility during infectious disease outbreaks is essential for
assessing the effectiveness of public health measures and planning future control strategies …

Generative Bayesian modeling to nowcast the effective reproduction number from line list data with missing symptom onset dates

A Lison, S Abbott, J Huisman… - PLoS Computational …, 2024 - journals.plos.org
The time-varying effective reproduction number R t is a widely used indicator of transmission
dynamics during infectious disease outbreaks. Timely estimates of R t can be obtained from …

Prioritising older individuals for COVID-19 booster vaccination leads to optimal public health outcomes in a range of socio-economic settings

I Bouros, EM Hill, MJ Keeling, S Moore… - PLOS Computational …, 2024 - journals.plos.org
The rapid development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 altered the course of the COVID-
19 pandemic. In most countries, vaccinations were initially targeted at high-risk populations …

A framework for counterfactual analysis, strategy evaluation, and control of epidemics using reproduction number estimates

B She, RL Smith, I Pytlarz, S Sundaram… - PLoS computational …, 2024 - journals.plos.org
During pandemics, countries, regions, and communities develop various epidemic models
to evaluate spread and guide mitigation policies. However, model uncertainties caused by …

[HTML][HTML] Modelling: understanding pandemics and how to control them

G Marion, L Hadley, V Isham, D Mollison… - Epidemics, 2022 - Elsevier
New disease challenges, societal demands and better or novel types of data, drive
innovations in the structure, formulation and analysis of epidemic models. Innovations in …