Sudden stratospheric warmings and anomalous upward wave activity flux

T Birner, JR Albers - Sola, 2017 - jstage.jst.go.jp
Abrupt breakdowns of the polar winter stratospheric circulation such as sudden stratospheric
warmings (SSWs) are a manifestation of strong two-way interactions between upward …

[HTML][HTML] Path properties of atmospheric transitions: Illustration with a low-order sudden stratospheric warming model

J Finkel, DS Abbot, J Weare - Journal of the Atmospheric …, 2020 - journals.ametsoc.org
Path Properties of Atmospheric Transitions: Illustration with a Low-Order Sudden
Stratospheric Warming Model in: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume 77 Issue 7 (2020) …

Dynamics and predictability of downward-propagating stratospheric planetary waves observed in March 2007

H Mukougawa, S Noguchi, Y Kuroda… - Journal of the …, 2017 - journals.ametsoc.org
The predictability of a downward-propagating event of stratospheric planetary waves
observed in early March 2007 is examined by conducting ensemble forecasts using an …

Predictability changes of stratospheric circulations in Northern Hemisphere winter

T Ichimaru, S Noguchi, T Hirooka… - Journal of the …, 2016 - jstage.jst.go.jp
Practical predictability of the stratospheric circulation in the boreal winters during the period
2001–2006 has been examined using the archive of 1-month ensemble forecast datasets …

Topological computation analysis of meteorological time-series data

H Morita, M Inatsu, H Kokubu - Siam Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems, 2019 - SIAM
A topological computation method (called the Morse graph method for stochastic time-series
date, or the MGSTD method) is applied to noisy time-series data obtained from …

Prediction Skill and Practical Predictability Depending on the Initial Atmospheric States in S2S Forecasts

M Inatsu, M Matsueda, N Nakano… - Journal of the …, 2023 - journals.ametsoc.org
The hypothesis that predictability depends on the atmospheric state in the planetary-scale
low-frequency variability in boreal winter was examined. We first computed six typical …

Atmospheric Extremes through the Lens of Transition Path Theory

J Finkel - 2022 - search.proquest.com
Extreme weather events have large consequences, dominating the impact of climate on
society, but are very difficult to characterize and predict, being exceptionally rare and …

On the asymmetry of forecast errors in the Northern winter stratosphere between vortex weakening and strengthening conditions

M Taguchi - Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 2015 - jstage.jst.go.jp
This study investigates the asymmetry of forecast errors in the Northern winter stratosphere
between vortex weakening and strengthening conditions. Previous studies suggest that the …

Time-series analysis and predictability estimates by empirical SDE modelling

N Nakano, M Inatsu, S Kusuoka… - Proceedings of the ISCIE …, 2016 - jstage.jst.go.jp
The empirical evaluating formulae of the stochastic differential equation (SDE) are
considered in this study, in order to reconstruct the information of the dynamics by the use of …

Empirical evaluated SDE modelling for dimensionality-reduced systems and its predictability estimates

N Nakano, M Inatsu, S Kusuoka, Y Saiki - Japan Journal of Industrial and …, 2018 - Springer
This paper develops and validates a method of empirical modelling for a dimensionality-
reduced system of a nonlinear dynamical system based on the framework of the stochastic …