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[HTML][HTML] Forecasting: theory and practice
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The
uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and …
uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and …
Advances in forecast evaluation
This chapter surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point forecasts. Taking West's
(2006) survey as a starting point, we briefly cover the state of the literature as of the time of …
(2006) survey as a starting point, we briefly cover the state of the literature as of the time of …
Is economics research replicable? Sixty published papers from thirteen journals say'usually not'
We attempt to replicate 67 papers published in 13 well-regarded economics journals using
author-provided replication files that include both data and code. Some journals in our …
author-provided replication files that include both data and code. Some journals in our …
Real-time forecasts of the real price of oil
We construct a monthly real-time dataset consisting of vintages for 1991.1–2010.12 that is
suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We …
suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We …
Real-time inflation forecasting with high-dimensional models: The case of Brazil
We show that high-dimensional econometric models, such as shrinkage and complete
subset regression, perform very well in the real-time forecasting of inflation in data-rich …
subset regression, perform very well in the real-time forecasting of inflation in data-rich …
Regional output growth in the United Kingdom: More timely and higher frequency estimates from 1970
Output growth estimates for regions of the UK are currently published at an annual
frequency only, released with a long delay, and offer limited historical coverage. To improve …
frequency only, released with a long delay, and offer limited historical coverage. To improve …
Robust approaches to forecasting
We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust
devices, contrasted with equilibrium-correction models. Their forecasting properties are …
devices, contrasted with equilibrium-correction models. Their forecasting properties are …
Real-time forecasting of the US federal government budget: A simple mixed frequency data regression approach
E Ghysels, N Ozkan - International Journal of Forecasting, 2015 - Elsevier
This paper proposes a real-time forecasting procedure involving a combination of MIDAS-
type regression models constructed with predictors of different sampling frequencies for …
type regression models constructed with predictors of different sampling frequencies for …
Multivariate singular spectrum analysis for forecasting revisions to real-time data
K Patterson, H Hassani, S Heravi… - Journal of Applied …, 2011 - Taylor & Francis
Real-time data on national accounts statistics typically undergo an extensive revision
process, leading to multiple vintages on the same generic variable. The time between the …
process, leading to multiple vintages on the same generic variable. The time between the …
UK regional nowcasting using a mixed frequency vector auto-regressive model with entropic tilting
Output growth data for the UK regions are available at only annual frequency and are
released with significant delay. Regional policy makers would benefit from more frequent …
released with significant delay. Regional policy makers would benefit from more frequent …