[HTML][HTML] Forecasting: theory and practice

F Petropoulos, D Apiletti, V Assimakopoulos… - International Journal of …, 2022 - Elsevier
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The
uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and …

Advances in forecast evaluation

T Clark, M McCracken - Handbook of economic forecasting, 2013 - Elsevier
This chapter surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point forecasts. Taking West's
(2006) survey as a starting point, we briefly cover the state of the literature as of the time of …

Is economics research replicable? Sixty published papers from thirteen journals say'usually not'

AC Chang, P Li - 2015 - papers.ssrn.com
We attempt to replicate 67 papers published in 13 well-regarded economics journals using
author-provided replication files that include both data and code. Some journals in our …

Real-time forecasts of the real price of oil

C Baumeister, L Kilian - Journal of business & economic statistics, 2012 - Taylor & Francis
We construct a monthly real-time dataset consisting of vintages for 1991.1–2010.12 that is
suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We …

Real-time inflation forecasting with high-dimensional models: The case of Brazil

MGP Garcia, MC Medeiros… - International Journal of …, 2017 - Elsevier
We show that high-dimensional econometric models, such as shrinkage and complete
subset regression, perform very well in the real-time forecasting of inflation in data-rich …

Regional output growth in the United Kingdom: More timely and higher frequency estimates from 1970

G Koop, S McIntyre, J Mitchell… - Journal of Applied …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
Output growth estimates for regions of the UK are currently published at an annual
frequency only, released with a long delay, and offer limited historical coverage. To improve …

Robust approaches to forecasting

JL Castle, MP Clements, DF Hendry - International Journal of Forecasting, 2015 - Elsevier
We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust
devices, contrasted with equilibrium-correction models. Their forecasting properties are …

Real-time forecasting of the US federal government budget: A simple mixed frequency data regression approach

E Ghysels, N Ozkan - International Journal of Forecasting, 2015 - Elsevier
This paper proposes a real-time forecasting procedure involving a combination of MIDAS-
type regression models constructed with predictors of different sampling frequencies for …

Multivariate singular spectrum analysis for forecasting revisions to real-time data

K Patterson, H Hassani, S Heravi… - Journal of Applied …, 2011 - Taylor & Francis
Real-time data on national accounts statistics typically undergo an extensive revision
process, leading to multiple vintages on the same generic variable. The time between the …

UK regional nowcasting using a mixed frequency vector auto-regressive model with entropic tilting

G Koop, S McIntyre, J Mitchell - Journal of the Royal Statistical …, 2020 - academic.oup.com
Output growth data for the UK regions are available at only annual frequency and are
released with significant delay. Regional policy makers would benefit from more frequent …