Despite a considerable premium on equity with respect to risk-free assets, many households
do not own stocks. We ask why the prevalence of stockholding is so limited. We focus on …

This article introduces a new source of survey data, namely the Bank of England Survey of
External Forecasters. The survey collects point and density forecasts of inflation and GDP …

To reconcile the disconnect between survey expectations of stock returns and rational
expectations, researchers have hypothesized that survey participants may confound beliefs …

The finite mixture distribution is proposed as an appropriate statistical model for a combined
density forecast. Its implications for measures of uncertainty and disagreement, and for …

This paper assesses the quantitative impact of ambiguity on historically observed financial
asset returns and growth rates. The single agent, in a dynamic exchange economy, treats …

Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macro-variables
reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post …

This chapter provides an overview of surveys of professional forecasters, with a focus on the
US Survey of Professional Forecasters and the European Central Bank Survey of …

We analyze the relationship between forecaster disagreement and macroeconomic
uncertainty in the Euro area using data from the European Central Bank's Survey of …

Errors in survey expectations display waves of pessimism and optimism. This paper
develops a novel theoretical framework of time-varying beliefs capturing this fact. In our …

The difference between nominal and real interest rates (break-even inflation) is often used to
gauge the market's inflation expectations-and has become an important tool in monetary …