Our understanding of the sources of oil price fluctuations and their effects on the US
economy has undergone important transformations in the last decades. First, several studies …

Research on oil markets conducted during the last decade has challenged long-held beliefs
about the causes and consequences of oil price shocks. As the empirical and theoretical …

We prove that local projections (LPs) and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) estimate the same
impulse responses. This nonparametric result only requires unrestricted lag structures. We …

The main objective of this paper is to identify the determining factors of the optimal credit
guarantee ratio in four members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) …

This paper studies how changes in oil supply expectations affect the oil price and the
macroeconomy. Using a novel identification design, exploiting institutional features of OPEC …

Traditional approaches to structural vector autoregressions (VARs) can be viewed as
special cases of Bayesian inference arising from very strong prior beliefs. These methods …

This chapter provides an overview of and user's guide to dynamic factor models (DFMs),
their estimation, and their uses in empirical macroeconomics. It also surveys recent …

It has been 40 years since the oil crisis of 1973/74. This crisis has been one of the defining
economic events of the 1970s and has shaped how many economists think about oil price …

We identify structural vector autoregressions using narrative sign restrictions. Narrative sign
restrictions constrain the structural shocks and/or the historical decomposition around key …

We evaluate explanations for the absence of disinflation during the Great Recession and
find popular explanations to be insufficient. We propose a new explanation for this puzzle …