If you have ever tilted your head to perceive a rotated image, or programmed a smartphone
to remind you of an upcoming appointment, you have engaged in cognitive offloading: the …

Classical (Bayesian) probability (CP) theory has led to an influential research tradition for
modeling cognitive processes. Cognitive scientists have been trained to work with CP …

Modeling human cognition is challenging because there are infinitely many mechanisms
that can generate any given observation. Some researchers address this by constraining the …

If citizens' behavior threatens to harm others or seems not to be in their own interest (eg,
risking severe head injuries by riding a motorcycle without a helmet), it is not uncommon for …

Choice behavior is considered the fundamental means by which individuals exert control
over their environments. One important choice domain that remains virtually unexplored is …

We introduce the Berlin Numeracy Test, a new psychometrically sound instrument that
quickly assesses statistical numeracy and risk literacy. We present 21 studies (n= 5336) …

" More information is always better, and full information is best. More computation is always
better, and optimization is best." More-is-better ideals such as these have long shaped our …

Heuristics are often viewed as inferior to “rational” strategies that exhaustively search and
process information. Introducing the theoretical perspective of ecological rationality, we …

Nearly a century ago, Frank Knight famously distinguished between risk and uncertainty with
respect to the nature of decisions made in a business enterprise. He associated generating …

In the management literature, heuristics are often conceived of as a source of systematic
error, whereas logic and statistics are regarded as the sine qua non of good decision …