This paper surveys learning-to-forecast experiments (LtFEs) with human subjects to test
theories of expectations and learning. Subjects must repeatedly forecast a market price …

abstract The efficient markets theory reached the height of its dominance in academic circles
around the 1970s. Faith in this theory was eroded by a succession of discoveries of …

An efficient capital market is one in which security prices adjust rapidly to the arrival of new
information. The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) suggests that security prices that prevail …

This survey discusses behavioral and experimental macroeconomics, emphasizing a
complex systems perspective. The economy consists of boundedly rational heterogeneous …

We investigate expectation formation in a controlled experimental environment. Subjects are
asked to predict the price in a standard asset pricing model. They do not have knowledge of …

This paper seeks to measure the extent to which entrepreneurs adjust their beliefs in the
light of new information, instead of relying on past experience to guide their decision …

In recent “learning to forecast” experiments (Hommes et al. 2005), three different patterns in
aggregate price behavior have been observed: slow monotonic convergence, permanent …

This paper studies the behavior of the exchange rate in the Kareken-Wallace overlap**
generations economy with two currencies in which decision rules are updated using the …

Capital or asset markets are distinguished from other markets by the informational role of
prices and by the duality of the traders' role: each trader may buy and sell asset (s) in …

The evolution of many economic variables is affected by expectations that economic agents
have with respect to the future development of these variables. We show, by means of …