In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the moments of the yield curve (or
alternatively, the term spread) as a predictor of future economic activity, defined as either …

We use the term structure of bank CD rates to examine whether maturity-transformation risk
is priced into the rates banks offer customers. We find that depositors pay a significant cost …

What is the sectoral composition of the market for safety, and does it matter for economic
stability? To address these questions, we construct a novel dataset of sectoral safe asset …

Define a perfect recession predictor as one that correctly predicts every recession and does
not falsely signal a recession when one does not occur. The benchmark spreads (10-year …

What is the sectoral composition of the market for safety, and does it matter for economic
stability? To address these questions, we construct a novel dataset of sectoral safe asset …

There has been renewed interest in the moments of the yield curve (or alternatively, the term
spread) as a predictor of future economic activity, defined as either recessions, or industrial …

This study examines the role of bank credit and macroeconomic variables in predicting
financial crises in Iran. Given the importance of predicting and managing financial crises in …

Аннотация Бюджетная система России впервые подвергается масштабному
напряжению по всем направлениям ввиду рисков потери налогооблагаемой базы из-за …