We have been oversold on the base rate fallacy in probabilistic judgment from an empirical,
normative, and methodological standpoint. At the empirical level, a thorough examination of …

In contrast to traditional research on base-rate neglect, an ecologically-oriented research
program would analyze the correspondence between cognitive algorithms and the nature of …

As illustrated by research Koehler himself cites (Dawes et al. 1993), the purpose of
experiments is to choose between contrasting explanations of past observations–rather than …

A recent study showed physicians' reasoning about a realistic case to be ignorant of base
rate. It also showed physicians interpreting information pertinent to base rate differently …

When base rates are learned and used in an experiential manner subjects show better base
rate use, perhaps because the implicit learning system is engaged. A causal framework in …

Setting the two hypotheses of complete neglect and full use of base rates against each other
is inappropriate. The proper question concerns the degree to which base rates are used (or …

The environment in which humans evolved is strongly and positively autocorrelated in space
and time. Probabilistic judgments based on the assumption of independence may not yield …

The important question is how people process probabilistic information, not whether they
process it in accordance with a normative model that we never should have expected them …

Any instance (ie, event, behavior, trait) belongs to infinitely many reference classes, hence
there are infinitely many base rates from which to choose. People clearly do not entertain all …

Koehler's target article attempts a balanced view of the relevance of knowledge of base
rates to judgments of subjective or credal probability, but he is not sensitive enough to the …