We nowcast world trade using machine learning, distinguishing between tree-based
methods (random forest, gradient boosting) and their regression-based counterparts …

The growing importance of services trade in the global economy contrasts with the scarcity
of timely data on this part of international trade. This paper develops models to nowcast …

The probabilistic setup and focus on evaluation of uncertainties and risks has become more
widespread in modern empirical macroeconomics, including the analysis of business cycle …

The paper is focused on the construction of a new composite indicator intended to predict
the economic cycle of Poland and its comparison with the existing CLI used by international …

This paper builds an innovative composite world trade-cycle index by means of a dynamic
factor model for short-term forecasts of world trade growth of both goods and (usually …

This paper compares backcasting performance of models based on variable selection to
dynamic factor model for backcasting the world trade growth rate with two months ahead …

Bu çalışmada, oynaklık endeksi VIX ile küresel ticaretin öncüsü olarak kabul edilen Baltık
Kuru Yük Endeksi Baltic Dry Index-BDI arasındaki ilişki 06.12. 2010-30.11. 2017 dönemi …

This paper examines the relative importance of global, regional, country and idiosyncratic
factors as well as the determinants that underpin fluctuations in international trade flows …

Maritime transport basically performs the process of transporting cargo from one point to
another (Branch, 2007: 2) and contributes greatly to the realization of economic change in …

In order to aid policy decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic, we propose a machine
learning approach to nowcast GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa, a region where official …