Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects

C Deser, F Lehner, KB Rodgers, T Ault… - Nature Climate …, 2020 - nature.com
Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate
change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections …

Unique challenges and opportunities for northeastern US crop production in a changing climate

DW Wolfe, AT DeGaetano, GM Peck, M Carey… - Climatic change, 2018 - Springer
Climate change may both exacerbate the vulnerabilities and open up new opportunities for
farming in the Northeastern USA. Among the opportunities are double-crop** and new …

Reproductive losses due to climate change‐induced earlier flowering are not the primary threat to plant population viability in a perennial herb

AM Iler, A Compagnoni, DW Inouye… - Journal of …, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
Despite a global footprint of shifts in flowering phenology in response to climate change, the
reproductive consequences of these shifts are poorly understood. Furthermore, it is …

Vulnerability of specialty crops to short-term climatic variability and adaptation strategies in the Midwestern USA

E Kistner, O Kellner, J Andresen, D Todey, LW Morton - Climatic change, 2018 - Springer
While the Midwestern USA ranks among the world's most important corn-soybean
production regions, the area also produces a variety of high-value specialty crops. These …

Snowmelt control on spring hydrology declines as the vernal window lengthens

DS Grogan, EA Burakowski… - Environmental Research …, 2020 - iopscience.iop.org
The vernal window, or the winter-to-spring transition, is a key period for seasonally snow-
covered, forested ecosystems. The events that open and close the vernal window shape the …

A longer vernal window: the role of winter coldness and snowpack in driving spring transitions and lags

AR Contosta, A Adolph, D Burchsted… - Global change …, 2017 - Wiley Online Library
Climate change is altering the timing and duration of the vernal window, a period that marks
the end of winter and the start of the growing season when rapid transitions in ecosystem …

Evaluating late spring frost risks of apple in the Loess Plateau of China under future climate change with phenological modeling approach

X Ru, Y Jiang, Q Luo, R Wang, X Feng, J Wang… - Scientia …, 2023 - Elsevier
Abstract Changes in apple phenology associated with climate change have attracted
extensive attention. However, it is poorly known whether the phenological dynamics …

Past and present risk of spring frosts for fruit trees in the Czech Republic

P Zahradníček, R Brázdil, J Řehoř, M Trnka… - Theoretical and Applied …, 2024 - Springer
Recent climate warming is reflected in the advanced onset of spring phenological phases of
fruit trees and in so-called false springs. This then manifests as an increased risk of trees …

Climate change reshapes the drivers of false spring risk across European trees

CJ Chamberlain, BI Cook, I Morales‐Castilla… - New …, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
Temperate forests are shaped by late spring freezes after budburst–false springs–which
may shift with climate change. Research to date has generated conflicting results, potentially …

How well do the spring indices predict phenological activity across plant species?

KL Gerst, TM Crimmins, EE Posthumus… - International Journal of …, 2020 - Springer
The spring indices, models that represent the onset of spring season biological activity, were
developed using a long-term observational record from the mid-to-late twentieth century of …