Today, more mediated information is available to more people than at any other time in
human history. New and revitalized sense-making strategies multiply in response to the …

This paper examines the performance of new online lending markets that rely on nonexpert
individuals to screen their peers' creditworthiness. We find that these peer lenders predict an …

Providing an in-depth analysis of public opinion, including its origins in political
socialization, its role in the electoral process, and the impact of the media, American Public …

Purpose–Social media provide an impressive amount of data about users and their
interactions, thereby offering computer and social scientists, economists, and statisticians …

We examine the relationship between election uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty, and
financial market uncertainty in a prediction-market analysis, covering seven US presidential …

Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the
problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by …

This paper tests for the capitalization of policy platforms into equity prices using a sample of
70 firms favored under Bush or Gore platforms during the 2000 US Presidential Election …

Traditional groups meetings are an inefficient and ineffective method for making forecasts
and decisions. We compare two structured alternatives to traditional meetings: the Delphi …

We conducted laboratory experiments for analyzing the accuracy of three structured
approaches (nominal groups, Delphi, and prediction markets) relative to traditional face-to …

We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the
conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six US presidential …