Over-and underreaction to information
This paper explores how cognitive constraints—namely, attention and processing capacity—
interact with properties of the learning environment to determine how people react to …
interact with properties of the learning environment to determine how people react to …
Stories, statistics, and memory
For many decisions, we encounter relevant information over the course of days, months or
years. We consume such information in various forms, including stories–qualitative content …
years. We consume such information in various forms, including stories–qualitative content …
Overinference from weak signals and underinference from strong signals
When people receive new information, sometimes they revise their beliefs too much, and
sometimes too little. We show that a key driver of whether people overinfer or underinfer is …
sometimes too little. We show that a key driver of whether people overinfer or underinfer is …
The rising tide lifts some interest rates: climate change, natural disasters, and loan pricing
We investigate how corporate loan costs are affected by climate change-related natural
disasters. We construct granular measures of borrowers' exposure to natural disasters and …
disasters. We construct granular measures of borrowers' exposure to natural disasters and …
Surveying Generative AI's Economic Expectations
L Bybee - arxiv preprint arxiv:2305.02823, 2023 - arxiv.org
I introduce a survey of economic expectations formed by querying a large language model
(LLM)'s expectations of various financial and macroeconomic variables based on a sample …
(LLM)'s expectations of various financial and macroeconomic variables based on a sample …
Real credit cycles
We incorporate diagnostic expectations into a workhorse neoclassical business cycle model
with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnostic overreaction …
with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnostic overreaction …
Optimally imprecise memory and biased forecasts
R Azeredo da Silveira, Y Sung… - American Economic …, 2024 - pubs.aeaweb.org
We propose a model of optimal decision-making subject to a memory constraint in the spirit
of models of rational inattention. Our theory differs from that of Sims (2003) in not assuming …
of models of rational inattention. Our theory differs from that of Sims (2003) in not assuming …
The group decision-making evolution of green consumption behavior under overreaction: Based on multi-agent simulation analysis
M Yang, H Chen, R Long, Y Wang, Q Sun - Resources, Conservation and …, 2023 - Elsevier
Promoting green consumption behavior is an effective means to promote sustainable
development. Previous studies have not considered the irrational decisions of residents …
development. Previous studies have not considered the irrational decisions of residents …
Behavioral attenuation
We report a large-scale examination of behavioral attenuation: due to information-
processing constraints, the elasticity of people's decisions with respect to economic …
processing constraints, the elasticity of people's decisions with respect to economic …
Decision weights for experimental asset prices based on visual salience
We apply a machine-learning algorithm, calibrated using general human vision, to predict
the visual salience of prices of stock price charts. We hypothesize that the visual salience of …
the visual salience of prices of stock price charts. We hypothesize that the visual salience of …