A stakeholder's beliefs influence his or her goals. However, a stakeholder's beliefs may not
be consistent with the goals of all stakeholders of a system being constructed. Such belief …

The rising tide of threats, from financial cybercrime to asymmetric military conflicts, demands
greater sophistication in tools and techniques of law enforcement, commercial and domestic …

As in other areas of expert judgment, intelligence analysis often requires judging the
probability that hypotheses are true. Intelligence organizations promote the use of structured …

Recent events have focused new attention on the need for intelligence professionals to
present alternative hypotheses to policymakers in a way that makes clear the uncertainties …

Crime analysts have traditionally received little guidance from academic researchers in key
tasks in the analysis process, specifically the testing of multiple hypotheses and evaluating …

Intelligence analysis often tackles questions shrouded by deep uncertainty, such as those
that deal with chemical and biological terrorism or nuclear weapon detection. In dealing with …

Formal logical tools are able to provide some amount of reasoning support for information
analysis, but are unable to represent uncertainty. Bayesian network tools represent …

Analysis of competing hypothesis, a method for evaluating explanations of observed
evidence, is used in numerous fields, including counterterrorism, psychology, and …

The ability to support creation and parallel analysis of competing scenarios is perhaps the
greatest single challenge for today's intelligence analysis systems. Dempster-Shafer theory …

Tradicionalmente se ha entendido que la principal función del razonamiento humano es
procesar y valorar información a partir de las percepciones y el conocimiento previo; …