Using a small Bayesian dynamic factor model of the euro area, we estimate the deviations of
output from its trend that are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these …

We compare a number of widely used trend‐cycle decompositions of output in a formal
Bayesian model comparison exercise. This is motivated by the often markedly different …

This paper documents the suite of models (SoMs) used by Norges Bank to estimate the
output gap. The models are estimated using data on GDP, unemployment, inflation, wages …

We develop a flexible semi-structural time-series model to estimate jointly several
macroeconomic “stars”—ie, unobserved long-run equilibrium levels of output (and growth …

We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada's staff output gap estimates since the
mid‐1980s and show that the average revision has been significantly smaller since the early …

It is well known that different specification choices can give starkly different output gap
estimates. To account for model uncertainty, we average estimates over a wide variety of …

The link between inflation and the output gap is central to the conduct of monetary policy. In
this paper, we use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap …

It is well known that different specification choices can give starkly different output gap
estimates. To account for model uncertainty, we use stochastic model specification search to …

In this paper, we assess whether and when multi-country studies pay off for forecasting
inflation and output growth. Factor stochastic volatility is adopted to allow for cross-country …

This paper documents the suite of models used by Norges Bank to estimate the output gap.
The models are estimated using data on GDP, unemployment, inflation, wages, investment …