The paper summarizes the current theory of how a floating exchange rate is determined,
dividing the subject into what determines the steady state and what determines the transition …

This paper presents a model of business cycles driven by shocks to consumer expectations
regarding aggregate productivity. Agents are hit by heterogeneous productivity shocks, they …

In a financial market where traders are risk averse and short lived and prices are noisy,
asset prices today depend on the average expectation today of tomorrow's price. Thus …

Empirical evidence shows that most exchange rate volatility at short to medium horizons is
related to order flow and not to macroeconomic variables. We introduce symmetric …

China's economic model involves regular and intensive government interventions in
financial markets, while Western policymakers often refrain from substantial interventions …

Rational herd behavior and informationally efficient security prices have long been
considered to be mutually exclusive but for exceptional cases. In this paper we describe the …

We implement a new survey of firms, focusing on their higher-order macroeconomic
expectations. The survey provides a novel set of stylized facts regarding the relationship …

In the last decade, the balance of power between shareholders and boards has shifted
dramatically. Changes in both the marketplace and the legal landscape governing it have …

Acentral BANK must be accountable for its actions, and its decisionmaking procedures
should meet the highest standards of probity and technical competence. In light of the …

There is a peculiar mismatch between explanations given by market analysts for observed
exchange-rate fluctuations and the academic consensus about exchange rates. The …