Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The
uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and …

This article reviews some key strands of demographic research on past trends in human
longevity and explores possible future trends in life expectancy at birth. Demographic data …

Background Projections of future mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health
and social services and pensions. Our aim was to forecast national age-specific mortality …

The introduction of the Lee–Carter (LC) method marked a breakthrough in mortality
forecasting, providing a simple yet powerful data-driven stochastic approach. The method …

Background Mortality rates across the UK stopped improving in the early 2010s, largely
attributable to UK Government's 'austerity'policies. Such policies are thought to …

When independence is assumed, forecasts of mortality for subpopulations are almost
always divergent in the long term. We propose a method for coherent forecasting of mortality …

Background Reliable estimation of future trends in life expectancy and the burden of
disability is crucial for ageing societies. Previous forecasts have not considered the potential …

This paper introduces a new framework for modelling the joint development over time of
mortality rates in a pair of related populations with the primary aim of producing consistent …

The relative merits of different parametric models for making life expectancy and annuity
value predictions at both pensioner and adult ages are investigated. This study builds on …

Understanding the systematic relationship between period and cohort life expectancy and
how the relationship evolves over time are critical issues in formulating the design of …