Develo**, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions

L Mizrahi, I Dallo, NJ van der Elst… - Reviews of …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible,
earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes …

Aftershock forecasting

JL Hardebeck, AL Llenos, AJ Michael… - Annual Review of …, 2024 - annualreviews.org
Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts
and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the …

Real-time discrimination of earthquake foreshocks and aftershocks

L Gulia, S Wiemer - Nature, 2019 - nature.com
Immediately after a large earthquake, the main question asked by the public and decision-
makers is whether it was the mainshock or a foreshock to an even stronger event yet to …

B‐Positive: A Robust Estimator of Aftershock Magnitude Distribution in Transiently Incomplete Catalogs

NJ van der Elst - Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
The earthquake magnitude‐frequency distribution is characterized by the b‐value, which
describes the relative frequency of large versus small earthquakes. It has been suggested …

Revealing the spatiotemporal complexity of the magnitude distribution and b-value during an earthquake sequence

M Herrmann, E Piegari, W Marzocchi - Nature Communications, 2022 - nature.com
Abstract The Magnitude–Frequency-Distribution (MFD) of earthquakes is typically modeled
with the (tapered) Gutenberg–Richter relation. The main parameter of this relation, the b …

The effect of declustering on the size distribution of mainshocks

L Mizrahi, S Nandan, S Wiemer - … Society of America, 2021 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
Declustering aims to divide earthquake catalogs into independent events (mainshocks), and
dependent (clustered) events, and is an integral component of many seismicity studies …

Physical Mechanism for a Temporal Decrease of the Gutenberg‐Richter b‐Value Prior to a Large Earthquake

R Ito, Y Kaneko - Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Observations of seismicity prior to large earthquakes show that the slope of a Gutenberg‐
Richter magnitude‐frequency relation, referred to as ab‐value, sometimes decreases with …

Forecasting the 2016–2017 Central Apennines earthquake sequence with a neural point process

S Stockman, DJ Lawson, MJ Werner - Earth's Future, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Point processes have been dominant in modeling the evolution of seismicity for decades,
with the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model being most popular. Recent …

Microseismicity along **aojiang Fault Zone (Southeastern Tibetan Plateau) and the characterization of interseismic fault behavior

Y Zhou, H Yue, S Zhou, L Fang, Y Zhou, L Xu, Z Liu… - Tectonophysics, 2022 - Elsevier
Abstract The **aojiang Fault (XJF) Zone locates in the southeastern of Tibetan Plateau and
defines the boundary between the South China and Sichuan-Yunnan blocks. Historical …

Transient evolution of the relative size distribution of earthquakes as a risk indicator for induced seismicity

VA Ritz, AP Rinaldi, S Wiemer - Communications Earth & Environment, 2022 - nature.com
Induced earthquakes pose a substantial challenge to many geo-energy applications, and in
particular to Enhanced Geothermal Systems. We demonstrate that the key factor controlling …