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Develo**, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions
While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible,
earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes …
earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes …
Aftershock forecasting
Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts
and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the …
and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the …
Real-time discrimination of earthquake foreshocks and aftershocks
Immediately after a large earthquake, the main question asked by the public and decision-
makers is whether it was the mainshock or a foreshock to an even stronger event yet to …
makers is whether it was the mainshock or a foreshock to an even stronger event yet to …
B‐Positive: A Robust Estimator of Aftershock Magnitude Distribution in Transiently Incomplete Catalogs
NJ van der Elst - Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
The earthquake magnitude‐frequency distribution is characterized by the b‐value, which
describes the relative frequency of large versus small earthquakes. It has been suggested …
describes the relative frequency of large versus small earthquakes. It has been suggested …
Revealing the spatiotemporal complexity of the magnitude distribution and b-value during an earthquake sequence
Abstract The Magnitude–Frequency-Distribution (MFD) of earthquakes is typically modeled
with the (tapered) Gutenberg–Richter relation. The main parameter of this relation, the b …
with the (tapered) Gutenberg–Richter relation. The main parameter of this relation, the b …
The effect of declustering on the size distribution of mainshocks
Declustering aims to divide earthquake catalogs into independent events (mainshocks), and
dependent (clustered) events, and is an integral component of many seismicity studies …
dependent (clustered) events, and is an integral component of many seismicity studies …
Physical Mechanism for a Temporal Decrease of the Gutenberg‐Richter b‐Value Prior to a Large Earthquake
R Ito, Y Kaneko - Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Observations of seismicity prior to large earthquakes show that the slope of a Gutenberg‐
Richter magnitude‐frequency relation, referred to as ab‐value, sometimes decreases with …
Richter magnitude‐frequency relation, referred to as ab‐value, sometimes decreases with …
Forecasting the 2016–2017 Central Apennines earthquake sequence with a neural point process
Point processes have been dominant in modeling the evolution of seismicity for decades,
with the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model being most popular. Recent …
with the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model being most popular. Recent …
Microseismicity along **aojiang Fault Zone (Southeastern Tibetan Plateau) and the characterization of interseismic fault behavior
Abstract The **aojiang Fault (XJF) Zone locates in the southeastern of Tibetan Plateau and
defines the boundary between the South China and Sichuan-Yunnan blocks. Historical …
defines the boundary between the South China and Sichuan-Yunnan blocks. Historical …
Transient evolution of the relative size distribution of earthquakes as a risk indicator for induced seismicity
Induced earthquakes pose a substantial challenge to many geo-energy applications, and in
particular to Enhanced Geothermal Systems. We demonstrate that the key factor controlling …
particular to Enhanced Geothermal Systems. We demonstrate that the key factor controlling …