2023 temperatures reflect steady global warming and internal sea surface temperature variability

BH Samset, MT Lund, JS Fuglestvedt… - Communications Earth & …, 2024 - nature.com
Abstract 2023 was the warmest year on record, influenced by multiple warm ocean basins.
This has prompted speculation of an acceleration in surface warming, or a stronger than …

Lucie: A lightweight uncoupled climate emulator with long-term stability and physical consistency for o (1000)-member ensembles

H Guan, T Arcomano, A Chattopadhyay… - arxiv preprint arxiv …, 2024 - arxiv.org
We present a lightweight, easy-to-train, low-resolution, fully data-driven climate emulator,
LUCIE, that can be trained on as low as $2 $ years of $6 $-hourly ERA5 data. Unlike most …

Crucial role of sea surface temperature warming patterns in near-term high-impact weather and climate projection

M Zhao, T Knutson - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2024 - nature.com
Recent studies indicate that virtually all global climate models (GCMs) have had difficulty
simulating sea surface temperature (SST) trend patterns over the past four decades. GCMs …

Convolutional neural networks trained on internal variability predict forced response of TOA radiation by learning the pattern effect

M Rugenstein, S Van Loon… - Geophysical Research …, 2025 - Wiley Online Library
Predicting forced, long‐term radiative feedbacks from internal climate variability has been a
decades‐long quest in climate science. We train a convolutional neural network (CNN) to …

Dependence of tropical cyclone seeds and climate sensitivity on tropical cloud response

TL Hsieh, GA Vecchi, C Wang, W Yang, B Zhang… - Science …, 2024 - science.org
Projections of future tropical cyclone frequency are uncertain, ranging from a slight increase
to a considerable decrease according to climate models. Estimation of how much the Earth's …

Factors determining tropical upper-level cloud radiative effect in the radiative-convective equilibrium framework

H Kang, YS Choi, JH Jiang - Scientific Reports, 2024 - nature.com
Investigation of the major factors determining tropical upper-level cloud radiative effect
(TUCRE) is crucial for understanding cloud feedback mechanisms. We examined the …

Potential near‐term wetting of the Southwestern United States if the Eastern and Central Pacific cooling trend reverses

MJ Alessi, M Rugenstein - Geophysical Research Letters, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
Near‐term projections of drought in the southwestern United States (SWUS) are uncertain.
The observed decrease in SWUS precipitation since the 1980s and heightened drought …

Origin and limits of invariant warming patterns in climate models

P Giani, AM Fiore, G Flierl, R Ferrari… - arxiv preprint arxiv …, 2024 - arxiv.org
Climate models exhibit an approximately invariant surface warming pattern in typical end-of-
century projections. This observation has been used extensively in climate impact …

Diagnosing the factors that contribute to the intermodel spread of climate feedback in CMIP6

C Wang, W Yang, G Vecchi, B Zhang… - Journal of …, 2025 - journals.ametsoc.org
The global surface temperature climate feedback parameter λ varies significantly across
climate models, and its real-world value remains uncertain. Studies have found that the sea …

El Niño and sea surface temperature pattern effects lead to historically high global mean surface temperatures in 2023

N Jiang, C Zhu, ZZ Hu, MJ McPhaden… - Geophysical …, 2025 - Wiley Online Library
In 2023, the world experienced its highest ever global mean surface temperature (GMST).
Our study underscores the pivotal significance of El Niño and sea surface temperature (SST) …