Prior knowledge elicitation: The past, present, and future

P Mikkola, OA Martin, S Chandramouli… - Bayesian …, 2024 - projecteuclid.org
Prior Knowledge Elicitation: The Past, Present, and Future Page 1 Bayesian Analysis (2024)
19, Number 4, pp. 1129–1161 Prior Knowledge Elicitation: The Past, Present, and Future ∗ …

Detecting and diagnosing prior and likelihood sensitivity with power-scaling

N Kallioinen, T Paananen, PC Bürkner… - Statistics and Computing, 2024 - Springer
Determining the sensitivity of the posterior to perturbations of the prior and likelihood is an
important part of the Bayesian workflow. We introduce a practical and computationally …

Cross-validatory extreme value threshold selection and uncertainty with application to ocean storm severity

PJ Northrop, N Attalides… - Journal of the Royal …, 2017 - academic.oup.com
Design conditions for marine structures are typically informed by threshold-based extreme
value analyses of oceanographic variables, in which excesses of a high threshold are …

SAM: Self-adapting mixture prior to dynamically borrow information from historical data in clinical trials

P Yang, Y Zhao, L Nie, J Vallejo, Y Yuan - Biometrics, 2023 - academic.oup.com
Mixture priors provide an intuitive way to incorporate historical data while accounting for
potential prior-data conflict by combining an informative prior with a noninformative prior …

Credal Bayesian deep learning

M Caprio, S Dutta, KJ Jang, V Lin, R Ivanov… - arxiv preprint arxiv …, 2023 - arxiv.org
Uncertainty quantification and robustness to distribution shifts are important goals in
machine learning and artificial intelligence. Although Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) …

Propensity‐score‐based priors for Bayesian augmented control design

J Lin, M Gamalo‐Siebers, R Tiwari - Pharmaceutical Statistics, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
Drug developers are required to demonstrate substantial evidence of effectiveness through
the conduct of adequate and well‐controlled (A&WC) studies to obtain marketing approval of …

Quantification of prior impact in terms of effective current sample size

M Wiesenfarth, S Calderazzo - Biometrics, 2020 - academic.oup.com
Bayesian methods allow borrowing of historical information through prior distributions. The
concept of prior effective sample size (prior ESS) facilitates quantification and …

Checking for prior-data conflict using prior-to-posterior divergences

DJ Nott, X Wang, M Evans, BG Englert - Statistical Science, 2020 - JSTOR
When using complex Bayesian models to combine information, checking consistency of the
information contributed by different components of the model for inference is good statistical …

Ensuring exchangeability in data‐based priors for a Bayesian analysis of clinical trials

J Lin, M Gamalo‐Siebers, R Tiwari - Pharmaceutical Statistics, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
In many orphan diseases and pediatric indications, the randomized controlled trials may be
infeasible because of their size, duration, and cost. Leveraging information on the control …

A BFFer's exploration with nuisance constructs: Bayesian p-value, H-likelihood, and Cauchyanity

XL Meng - Handbook of Bayesian, Fiducial, and Frequentist …, 2024 - books.google.com
Scientific inquiries seek evidence to establish, support, or challenge theories and
arguments. Therefore, hypothesis testing and statistical estimation, including prediction and …