The rational expectations hypothesis is a bedrock of modern macroeconomics. It is often
combined with a strong, complementary hypothesis that all data about the state of the …

We survey literature on ambiguity with an emphasis on recent applications in
macroeconomics and finance. Like risk, ambiguity leads to cautious behavior and …

The business cycle is alive and well, and real variables respond to it more or less as they
always did. Witness the Great Recession. Inflation, in contrast, has gone quiescent. This …

Using a new survey of firms in New Zealand, we document how exogenous variation in the
macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by firms affects their economic decisions. We use …

The stock market is volatile, as is aggregate economic activity, and the two are connected. At
least since Burns and Mitchell (1938), we know that measures of investment and production …

We develop a tractable method for augmenting macroeconomic models with autonomous
variation in higher‐order beliefs. We use this to accommodate a certain type of waves of …

This paper studies how digital innovation affects small and medium-sized enterprises'
financial access and productivity growth in a currency union with an incomplete credit …

Microeconomic evidence reveals a direct link between firms' current earnings and their
access to debt. This paper studies macroeconomic implications of earnings-based …

This paper combines a data-rich environment with a machine learning algorithm to provide
new estimates of time-varying systematic expectational errors (“belief distortions”) …

Monitoring economic conditions in real time, or nowcasting, and Big Data analytics share
some challenges, sometimes called the three “Vs”. Indeed, nowcasting is characterized by …