Noise trader models suggest that 'smart money'profits from uninformed speculators. This
paper investigates how rates of return are associated with the timing of a bet and the amount …

Many laboratory-based studies provide evidence that temperature can influence how people
make decisions, by affecting their risk preferences and propensity to make cognitive errors …

We examine the problem of how much risk‐averse agents would be willing to bet on events
where there are multiple possible winners but only one will actually win. We describe how …

We report striking evidence of semi-strong inefficiency in the UK fixed-odds football betting
market using a reputable newspaper tipster which offers probabilities of match outcomes …

Probabilistic forecasts from discrete choice models, which are widely used in marketing
science and competitive event forecasting, are often best evaluated out-of-sample using …

Increasingly, prediction markets are being embraced as a mechanism for eliciting and
aggregating dispersed information and providing a means of deriving probabilistic forecasts …

This paper reports on three studies investigating how accurately bettors (= people who
regularly bet on sports events) interpret the probabilistic information implied by betting odds …

ABSTRACT A number of empirical studies on the efficiency of racetrack betting market have
shown the 'favourite-longshot bias,'which means longshots are overbet while favourites are …

You can bet on an event where there are multiple possible winners but only one will actually
win. At the odds offered, you think there may be multiple bets worth taking. How much do …

This thesis is made up of three separate papers, all of which explore how decision makers
discount information in simplified financial markets where participants' behaviour can be …