Causal structure learning over time: Observations and interventions

BM Rottman, FC Keil - Cognitive psychology, 2012 - Elsevier
Seven studies examined how people learn causal relationships in scenarios when the
variables are temporally dependent–the states of variables are stable over time. When …

Causal strength induction from time series data.

KW Soo, BM Rottman - Journal of Experimental Psychology …, 2018 - psycnet.apa.org
One challenge when inferring the strength of cause-effect relations from time series data is
that the cause and/or effect can exhibit temporal trends. If temporal trends are not accounted …

Naïve theories of causal force and compression of elapsed time judgments.

D Faro, AL McGill, R Hastie - Journal of personality and social …, 2010 - psycnet.apa.org
Recent research has shown that when people perceive a causal relation between 2 events,
they “compress” the intervening elapsed time. The present work shows that a naïve …

Searching for the best cause: Roles of mechanism beliefs, autocorrelation, and exploitation.

BM Rottman - … of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and …, 2016 - psycnet.apa.org
When testing which of multiple causes (eg, medicines) works best, the testing sequence has
important implications for the validity of the final judgment. Trying each cause for a period of …

The acquisition and use of causal structure knowledge

BM Rottman - The Oxford handbook of causal reasoning, 2017 - books.google.com
This chapter provides an introduction to how humans learn and reason about multiple
causal relations connected together in a causal structure. The first half of the chapter focuses …

[PDF][PDF] Elements of a rational framework for continuous-time causal induction

M Pacer, T Griffiths - Proceedings of the annual meeting of the …, 2012 - escholarship.org
Temporal information plays a major role in human causal inference. We present a rational
framework for causal induction from events that take place in continuous time. We define a …

Learning about causal relations that change over time: primacy and recency over long timeframes in causal judgments and memory

BM Rottman, Y Zhang - Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications, 2025 - Springer
Being able to notice that a cause–effect relation is getting stronger or weaker is important for
adapting to one's environment and deciding how to use the cause in the future. We …

When and how do people reason about unobserved causes

BM Rottman, W Ahn, CC Luhmann - Causality in the Sciences, 2011 - books.google.com
Assumptions and beliefs about unobserved causes are critical for inferring causal
relationships from observed correlations. For example, an unobserved factor can influence …

Effect of grou** of evidence types on learning about interactions between observed and unobserved causes.

BM Rottman, W Ahn - Journal of Experimental Psychology …, 2011 - psycnet.apa.org
When a cause interacts with unobserved factors to produce an effect, the contingency
between the observed cause and effect cannot be taken at face value to infer causality. Yet it …

Causal learning with interrupted time series data

Y Zhang, BM Rottman - Judgment and Decision Making, 2023 - cambridge.org
People often test changes to see if the change is producing the desired result (eg, does
taking an antidepressant improve my mood, or does kee** to a consistent schedule …