For decades, households' subjective expectations elicited via surveys have been
considered meaningless because they often differ substantially from the forecasts of …

Households' and firms' subjective inflation expectations play a central role in
macroeconomic and intertemporal microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective …

This paper studies people's understanding of inflation—their perceived causes,
consequences, trade-offs-and the policies supported to mitigate its effects. We design a new …

We provide evidence on narratives about the macroeconomy-the stories people tell to
explain macroeconomic phenomena-in the context of a historic surge in inflation. In surveys …

Consumers rely on the price changes of goods in their grocery bundles when forming
expectations about aggregate inflation. We use micro data that uniquely match individual …

This paper provides new evidence on a long-standing question asked by Shiller (1997): why
do we dislike inflation? I conducted two surveys on representative samples of the US …

We study people's subjective models of the macroeconomy and shed light on their
attentional foundations. To do so, we measure beliefs about the effects of macroeconomic …

Using a representative online panel from the United States, we examine how individuals'
macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their …

German separation in 1949 into a communist East and a capitalist West and their
reunification in 1990 are commonly described as a natural experiment to study the enduring …

We survey a representative sample of US households to study how exposure to the COVID-
19 stock market crash affects expectations and planned behavior. Wealth shocks are …