Generating probabilistic forecasts from convection-allowing ensembles using neighborhood approaches: A review and recommendations

CS Schwartz, RA Sobash - Monthly Weather Review, 2017‏ - journals.ametsoc.org
Abstract “Neighborhood approaches” have been used in two primary ways to postprocess
and verify high-resolution ensemble output. While the two methods appear deceptively …

Money doesn't grow on trees, but forecasts do: Forecasting extreme precipitation with random forests

GR Herman, RS Schumacher - Monthly Weather Review, 2018‏ - journals.ametsoc.org
Approximately 11 years of reforecasts from NOAA's Second-Generation Global Ensemble
Forecast System Reforecast (GEFS/R) model are used to train a contiguous United States …

FACETs: A proposed next-generation paradigm for high-impact weather forecasting

LP Rothfusz, R Schneider, D Novak… - Bulletin of the …, 2018‏ - journals.ametsoc.org
Abstract Recommendations by the National Research Council (NRC), the National Institute
of Standards and Technology (NIST), and Weather-Ready Nation workshop participants …

Warm-sector heavy rainfall in southern China and its WRF simulation evaluation: A low-level-jet perspective

M Zhang, Z Meng - Monthly Weather Review, 2019‏ - journals.ametsoc.org
Warm-sector heavy rainfall in southern China refers to the heavy rainfall that occurs within
the warm sector hundreds of kilometers south of a front or without a front during April–June …

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding

RS Schumacher - Oxford research encyclopedia of natural hazard …, 2017‏ - oxfordre.com
Heavy precipitation, which in many contexts is welcomed because it provides the water
necessary for agriculture and human use, in other situations is responsible for deadly and …

[HTML][HTML] Forecasting excessive rainfall with random forests and a deterministic convection-allowing model

AJ Hill, RS Schumacher - Weather and Forecasting, 2021‏ - journals.ametsoc.org
Approximately seven years of daily initializations from the convection-allowing National
Severe Storms Laboratory Weather Research and Forecasting Model are used as inputs to …

Linking flood frequency with mesoscale convective systems in the US

H Hu, Z Feng, LYR Leung - Geophysical Research Letters, 2021‏ - Wiley Online Library
Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) with larger rain areas and higher rainfall intensity
than non‐MCS events can produce severe flooding. Flooding occurrences associated with …

Object-based verification of short-term, storm-scale probabilistic mesocyclone guidance from an experimental warn-on-forecast system

ML Flora, PS Skinner, CK Potvin… - Weather and …, 2019‏ - journals.ametsoc.org
An object-based verification method for short-term, storm-scale probabilistic forecasts was
developed and applied to mesocyclone guidance produced by the experimental Warn-on …

[HTML][HTML] The ensemble framework for flash flood forecasting (EF5) v1. 2: Description and case study

ZL Flamig, H Vergara, JJ Gourley - Geoscientific Model …, 2020‏ - gmd.copernicus.org
Abstract The Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5) was developed
specifically for improving hydrologic predictions to aid in the issuance of flash flood warnings …

Generation of ensemble mean precipitation forecasts from convection-allowing ensembles

AJ Clark - Weather and Forecasting, 2017‏ - journals.ametsoc.org
Methods for generating ensemble mean precipitation forecasts from convection-allowing
model (CAM) ensembles based on a simple average of all members at each grid point can …